In normal times incumbency tends to negatively impact the winning prospects of an electoral candidate, though in a polity as ours it helps him/her win a by-election. But the by-elections to two National Assembly and seven provincial assembly seats held on December 4 had some additional features, including the fact that the exercise was being projected as a curtain-raiser to the coming general election in the country.
How the parties are going to fare in the next election, to many the outcome of these by-elections was to be the indicator. These by-elections were also crucial to test the strength of emerging electoral alliances as well as the viability of the code of conduct prepared by the Election Commission of Pakistan. Last but not the least; the by-elections were critical for the future of Punjab politics. And it's in that province where the stunning victory of the Nawaz Sharif-headed PML (N) tends to cast a bleak political future for the PPP-led ruling coalition in the Centre. The PML (N) has won hands down in the heartland of Pakistan substantially tilting the balance of power in its favour. It won all but two in the eight by-elections, conceding victory to rival PML (Q) just one and none to the PPP. Even the other contested National Assembly seat has been won by an Independent who is believed to enjoy PML (N) backing. That the PPP won in the lone contest to a provincial assembly seat in Sindh is a development which hardly serves to console the party high command.
That the PML (N) emerged much stronger from the by-elections is indeed amazing but not entirely unexpected. Appointment of Manzoor Wattoo to lead the party in the Punjab may have angered the die-hard PPP workers whose aversion to Chaudhrys-led PML (Q) is much deeper and any attempt at replacing the Sharifs with them doesn't gel easily. The suspicion that hearts and minds of workers on the electoral alliance partners PPP and PML (Q) do not beat in unison is equally strong in the Chaudhrys' quarters. For instance, in Gujrat, the PPP-PML (Q) joint candidate lost by a big margin essentially because the Gujrat PPP chapter is pro-Nawaz Shairf - as amply reflected from a recent statement of Information Minister Kaira. And a PML (Q)'s prompt reaction to the party's debacle is equally revealing: "I think PPP's supporters are not ready to vote for PML's candidates and same is the case with the latter," was the reaction of a Chaudhrys' man.
Of course, not much time is left to help newly-elected members prove their true worth as elected representatives. With no further by-elections possible and the ruling coalition at the Centre now bereft of its potential to muster enough voting strength to amend the Constitution the bye-polls exercise is not of any significant relevance to the functioning of legislative houses. But it has certainly thrown up a new and qualitatively different political scenario - not for only what is narrated above but also for an idea much is in store for the henceforth outsiders and the newly refurbished Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). For the ECP its mission to hold fair, free and peaceful election in the country these by-elections were put to first real-time test. Given our political culture, one would be very profoundly naïve to expect entirely violence-free polls, and it was not the case this time also. There were scuffles and celebratory firing. Since these were isolated incidents and can be clearly identified, the Commission should show its teeth by delivering prompt punishment to the errant party workers. We will wait for the 'action' the Punjab Election Commissioner, Raja Mehmood, initiates against alleged use of government machinery by the PML (N) candidates. But all said and done the entire by-election exercise is expected to further the cause of democracy in Pakistan.
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