There is no such thing as a graceful retreat from a losing warfront; it is invariably pell-mell and stampedes. And so appears to be the emerging scenario in Afghanistan as the pull out deadline is only a year away but victory is nowhere in sight.
The public release of the Pentagon's "Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan", which was held back presumably to save Obama administration from embarrassment during the run-up to election, is the biannual assessment of gains and losses; it tends to portray the ground situation in that distant adventure as quite bleak for the American war machine. But, as is generally the case, at least one of the accusing fingers for the impending fiasco has been raised in the direction of Pakistan. The report says the Pak-Afghan border remains a "hot zone", and the "Pakistan-based sanctuary for insurgents, such as the Haqqani Network ...as well the financial and operational support the insurgents receive" keeps the security situation in border areas of Afghanistan volatile. Yes, to the extent the common border region remains a hot zone there is no denying, but the whole truth is that it's not a 'Pakistan-creation' alone; the cursed sanctuary is the gift of the great Afghan Jihad which was as much the brainchild of Washington as of anyone else. If it irks the Pentagon, does it give any comfort to Pakistan? Only this past Monday, the Taliban suicide-bombers attacked a police station in Bannu killing three policemen, one soldier and two civilians and the same day eight were wounded in a remote-control explosion near a public rally being addressed by ANP chief Asfandyar Wali in Charsadda owned by them. But that said the need to sort out the militants remains urgent and compelling. In addition to the ongoing military operations, there is the need to employ political tools particularly the time-tested tribal peace jirgas and interventions by third parties. The army can do only as much; it's the civil administration that should take over from there and restore civil order and effective governance - a lesson the KP government doesn't seem to have fully learnt from the Swat operation.
The other causes that tend to hinder relatively safe withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, in the words of the Pentagon report are, rampant corruption and insufficient capabilities of the Afghan security forces to control the post-2014 Afghanistan. Only one of the 23 brigades of Afghan National Army is in a position to operate independently without air or other military support of the US/Nato forces. That instead of being any help in curbing insurgency the much ballyhooed surge ordered by President Obama added to the American war casualties - this brings out General Petraeus's fallacy of equating conditions in Afghanistan with that in Iraq and thus proves right the adage that this country has been a 'graveyard of empires'. Over the last few months, there have been numerous cases of so-called 'green-on-blue' attacks, a phenomenon that's quite common during the endgame phase of international conflicts - and is said to be the main cause behind President Obama's anxiety to come out of Afghanistan as early as possible. According to the report, the Taliban remain "resilient ...insurgency remains adaptive and determined, and retains the capability to emplace substantial number of IEDs and to conduct isolated high-profile attacks". But why, particularly when overt and covert efforts to draw in the insurgents for negotiated terms for peace in Afghanistan have been significantly stepped up - even though the American war machine is still reluctant to return from the warfront without victory. The Pentagon assessment is quite close to the realities on the ground, but where it is spot on is the incidence of rampant corruption. The question is why the coalition which was so much anxious to bring democracy and rule of law to the Afghan masses, has missed out from its grand strategy - leave alone mushrooming production of opium flourishing narcotics business under its very nose. For the White House that is in favour of 'cutting losses in an increasingly unpopular war' the Pentagon report would act as an added incentive.
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