Sentiment on the South Korean won and the Singapore dollar turned bearish with short positions built up for the first time since early June over the last two weeks, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. The survey of 14 analysts also indicated currency market players added pessimistic bets on the Malaysian ringgit for the first time since early July with views on emerging Asian currencies becoming negative or less optimistic.
Two weeks ago, ringgit long positions had reached their largest level in more than 10 months, the previous poll published on January 17 showed. The Malaysian currency came under pressure from caution over an upcoming election.
Currency market players also reversed long positions in the Taiwan dollar to bearish bets for the first time since late October last year. Those currencies were set to report their largest percentage monthly losses in January since May last year on profit-taking from foreign portfolio investors and caution over possible measures by their authorities to slow down a recent rise in their currencies.
Authorities of some regional countries such as South Korea expressed concerns about the appreciation of their currencies, warning of possible regulatory measures to cope with hot money inflows. The wariness prompted cuts in some bullish bets on the Thai baht and the Philippine peso, the latest survey results showed. Long positions in the Chinese yuan were slashed by about a third.
But optimistic positions in the Indian rupee nearly doubled as the country continued to enjoy inflows and on hopes that a rate cut on Wednesday would boost growth. The Reuters survey focused on what analysts believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies:
Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long US dollars. The figures included positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
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