They're clueless

The country this week past witnessed two major decisions that an outgoing government should have morally and from the perspective of inability to ensure implementation desisted from. The first was the Cabinet approval of a three-year (2012-15) Strategic Trade Policy Framework (STPF), and the second approval of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. And then there was the Tahirul Qadri factor apparently kept in prominence because of the coalition government.
The STPF, it was reported, was approved within three to four minutes indicative of cabinet disinterest in the document which would cost the people of this country around 26.108 billion rupees. It has a range of recommendations that envisage enhanced bureaucracy through the establishment of an Export-Import Bank and Pakistan Land Port Authority to strengthen regional trade. Given the appallingly poor governance in all our autonomous as well as government institutions any increase in the number of state run entities would raise serious concerns about opening more avenues of abuse. In addition, the contention in the STPF that it is the small manufacturer who suffers from loadshedding and gas shedding and not the large scale manufacturing (LSM) is not supported by the Economic Survey or the State Bank of Pakistan indicators which clearly and unambiguously state that LSM has been declining over the past five years and several industrial units have already relocated to other countries notably Bangladesh.
The IP gas pipeline project is another approval that defies the imagination given two basic facts. First, US' overt and sustained opposition to the project which Hillary Clinton the then Secretary of State conveyed in unambiguous terms to the Appropriations Subcommittee on State and Foreign Operations last year. She stated that implementation of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project would automatically trigger US sanctions under the Iran Sanctions Act which imposes specified sanctions against any foreign (non-US) company, which invests more than $20 million in the oil and gas sector in Iran. Thus the IP gas pipeline would trigger cessation of US civil and military assistance to Pakistan which is expected to be followed by the cessation of disbursements by the majority if not all bilaterals as well as multilaterals which form part of the Friends of Democratic Pakistan consortium.
Second, the government must be aware that there is simply not enough funding to lay the pipeline. Thus the ministerial committee set up by the cabinet to generate funding for the project consisting of the Minister for Finance and Law as well as the Advisor to the Prime Minister on Petroleum and Natural Resources and Governor State Bank is unlikely to be able to access (i) Western funds due to US sanctions, (ii) Chinese funds given that a Chinese company recently withdrew its earlier interest in the project which cabinet documents indicate was thought to be as a result of US pressure, or (iii) Russian funds given that President Putin cancelled his visit to Pakistan due to what many believe is Indian pressure.
The people of this country are baffled as to why the present government has, for the past five years, failed to implement policies that are within its ambit for example development of Thar coal, which it has repeatedly stated it would do so, and improving governance in the water and power sector.
These two decisions are not all that has been very disturbing in the past week or so. Sunday the 26 of January witnessed Tahirul Qadri once again hogging national headlines flanked by a bunch of government ministers - from PPP, MQM, ANP, FATA and PML (Q). The date of the meeting was agreed when Qadri was met with ten men representing each coalition party that is part of the federal government as a face saving measure.
The PPP, everyone has seen over the past five years, has never ever sought rapprochement with those challenging its rule/decisions in the first instance. Examples abound and include implementing of the judicial commission and apex court decisions at the last minute as well as accepting the demands of Nawaz Sharif's long march only at the eleventh hour. Unsurprisingly this was also evident in the Qadri case with the Interior Minister and Minister for Information initially taking pot shots at Qadri and their continued dismissal of the threat he posed given the much smaller numbers Qadri succeeded in mobilising in Islamabad than claimed. The volte face of the PPP with respect to negotiating with Qadri is therefore indicative, analysts maintain, of a stronger power exerting pressure to save Qadri's face so to speak. Some analysts maintain that it was the army, which has vehemently denied any support, while others have referred to the West, particularly the United Kingdom, with the Ambassador Adam Thomson also publicly denying supporting Qadri. Whoever was supporting Qadri few believe that the PPP would have changed its earlier stance without considerable pressure.
Be that as it may, whoever supported Qadri must have by now given up hope that he has the numbers to bring about change or delay the process of elections to ensure accountability of the leadership before the elections - the standard normal plea taken by all Pakistan's former military dictators. Raza Rabbani indicated that there is a move to derail democracy for a couple of years which, one assumes, is based on just such an analysis with the finger firmly pointed at the establishment/army.
While many of us agree with Qadri's assessment of the five-year PPP rule he was not well briefed and his recommendations with respect to the economy would be laughable but for the fact that all public and private channels were telecasting the Sunday press conference live. Qadri suggested that the government stop release of all development funds to parliamentarians as that could be regarded as pre-poll rigging. And, here comes the suggestion that defies basic economic logic: this money should be diverted to subsidising electricity, gas and essential food items like flour, sugar and tea. What this would do to the rate of inflation would be similar to what war torn Germany suffered after losing the war when reportedly people took money in baskets and returned with food to fill their empty stomachs. The economic illogic behind Qadri's suggestion must be emphasised as subsidies must not be considered a credible or indeed an appropriate part of a manifesto of any political party as it would increase the miseries of the common man.
And yet this suggestion was a populist one which raises concerns about Qadri's true motive which may have been to highlight the fact that a government that would subsidise all essentials including utilities is a possibility if he or his backers play an active role in politics. This would imply that he is intending to leave the non-government platform of the Minhajul Quran which is supported by thousands who benefited from his schools/universities/charities and launch himself on the Pakistan Awami Tehrik a political party headed by him. If such is his economic agenda one can only hope that he does not stand for elections and if he does then he is not elected. Give that his constituents are scattered there seems little chance of his election.