Cotton fell from a nine-month high in heavy trading on Tuesday as certified stocks continued to climb and profit-taking and a strong US dollar added to the downward pressure. The benchmark May cotton contract on ICE Futures US slid 0.82 cent, or 0.98 percent, to settle at 83.10 cents per lb on Tuesday. The contract, which recently became the most active, reached 84.01 cents a lb on Monday, the highest level since May.
Certified stocks have climbed as higher prices have drawn cotton to the exchange. The trend continued this week, with stocks pushing at 20-month highs established last week. The combination of the rise in readily-available supplies, with profit-taking and a strong dollar, pushed cotton lower on Tuesday.
"Those cert(fied) stocks are where the pressure is coming from. That's a hefty number," said Sharon Johnson, cotton specialist at Knight Capital. Exchange inventories rose to more than 194,000 148-lb bales on February 11, according to ICE data, the highest level since May 2011. That compares to about 8,000 bales seen in October. Another almost 70,000 bales awaited US Department of Agriculture approval as of Tuesday. Whether or not those certified stocks will be delivered to customers or instead be rolled forward remains to be seen, with the first notice date set for February 22. In the meantime their presence could weigh on prices, especially for spot cotton.
The March spot contract closed down 1.3 percent at 81.81 cents a lb. The spread between the most-active May contract and the spot March contract increased to 1.29 cents a lb on Tuesday, putting the second-month contract at its widest premium to the first since early December. The large spread could entice people to roll their hedges forward.
Profit-taking also weighed on prices. "We're overbought, and the specs have been big buyers. Any time the market falls back, you'll see some profit-taking," Johnson. Speculators boosted their bullish bets on cotton for the fourth week to a 2-1/2-year high in the week up to February 5. During that time, prices jumped well over 7 percent. The bull trend has run into resistance from the cotton market's global supply and demand fundamentals, with the fibre posting its first weekly loss last week.
Expectations remain that global supplies will continue to outstrip demand, especially as the man-made alternatives threaten demand for the natural fibre at higher prices. Prices also felt pressure from a strong dollar in Tuesday's dealings, with the dollar index increasing to a one-month high. "The dollar has had a run. If it backs off, that would be supportive," said Keith Brown, president of commodity firm Keith Brown and Co in Moultrie, Georgia. Trading volumes were heavy, reaching nearly 50,000 lots and about double the 30-day average, preliminary Thomson Reuters data showed.
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