Catholic papal elections are notoriously difficult to predict. The process that saw Jorge Mario Bergoglio emerge as Pope Francis, the first-ever pontiff from the Americas, was no exception. The Vatican conclave of 115 cardinal electors confounded the experts by choosing a 76-year-old Argentinian who had a part of his lung removed more than five decades ago, and who was never in charge of a Vatican dicastery, the equivalent of a government ministry.
Ahead of the conclave to replace Benedict XVI, the general consensus among Vatican experts was for a pope strong enough to traverse the globe and confront the huge problems facing the Curia, the governing body of the Church. "Both strength of mind and body are necessary, strength which in the last few months has deteriorated in me to the extent that I have had to recognise my incapacity," Benedict noted when he announced his resignation on February 11.
As a result, cardinals aged over 70 failed to make it onto the shortlists of most pundits. Cardinals with experience in dealing with Church politics were favoured, in what was portrayed as a contest between reformists and Curiali, on the back of reports of infighting and divisions within the Vatican hierarchy.
To the end, the Italian bishops were convinced that an Italian would be chosen to lead the world's Catholic community, after a Pole and a German. Minutes after the white smoke plumed from the roof of the Sistine Chapel, the Italian Episcopal Conference wrongly saluted Cardinal Angelo Scola of Milan. Even Bergoglio had flatly ruled out the possibility that he would be elected, telling Argentinian daily La Nacion that he had "no chance" of becoming pope.
"This time, my age works against me," he said, in an apparent reference to the fact that he had been a strong contender in the 2005 conclave that elected Benedict. The Vatican likes to remind observers that a conclave is inspired by the Holy Spirit and does not follow the kind of rules that apply to a political election. And judging from some of the reactions, the choice of Bergoglio may not have been obvious even to those locked for two days under Michelangelo's frescoed ceiling.
"I had envisioned the outcome as something completely different ... I did not consider Cardinal Bergoglio," said German Cardinal Joachim Meisner. While cardinals are strictly forbidden from recounting details of a conclave, it appears the choice of Bergoglio developed relatively rapidly, with the necessary two-thirds majority reached by the fifth ballot.
"It was only in the last two, three days that you sensed, also in the manner in which he spoke, that there is ability there," noted Karl Lehmann, another German cardinal. Cardinal electors would have considered Bergoglio's age. Benedict's resignation - the first in 600 years - at the age of 85 set a precedent that would be difficult to ignore, said Lehmann.
"Of course it was spoken about," he said of Bergoglio's physical fitness. "With the resignation of Benedict XVI, I think a limited time in office ... has become a bit more trusted, so that such a thing is possible." Vatican experts have been debating whether Francis, as a relative outsider, is strong enough to deal with the infighting that has beset the Church hierarchy.
They also suggest that those who expect him to revolutionise its conservative doctrine on same-sex marriage and abortion may be in for disappointment. But as Vittorio Missori, one of the few Vatican experts to predict Bergoglio's election points out, there are perhaps even bigger problems to confront.
The Church is haemorrhaging members to its Evangelical and Penticostal rivals. Latin America, which pope John Paul II had dubbed "the continent of hope," is particularly hard hit. The Church is often criticised for its wealth and arrogance. Bergoglio, by contrast, has earned a reputation as a humble man with a special interest in the plight of the poor.
On the evening of his election, for instance, he refused to travel in the papal limousine, preferring a minibus instead. In 2001, Bergoglio had asked his followers not to travel to Rome for his ordination as cardinal, but to donate the money they would have spent on the trip to the poor, Osservatore Romano, the Vatican's official newspaper said.
Vatican expert for Italian weekly L'Espresso, Sandro Magister, also noted the new Catholic leader's simple ways and humble demeanour. "The conclave made a move that was as surprising as it was brilliant," Magister wrote. On his blog, he predicted: "The surprises have only just begun."
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