Spain, Italy debt rally as Cyprus seeks crisis solution

Spanish and Italian government bonds rallied on Friday as Cyprus sought to secure a bailout to avoid default and the collapse of its banking system before a Monday deadline. Cyprus said it had reached a deal to spin off the Greek units of its debt-ridden banks and the country's ruling party said a solution to its bailout crisis was only hours away.
German Bunds were 9 ticks lower at 144.37, as investors turned more neutral on German debt before the weekend. "We are heading into a weekend where you are going to get a lot of news," David Keeble, global head of fixed income strategy at Credit Agricole said. "If it was my money, I wouldn't have any big bets. If you are going long Bunds, and they get a solution, you are stuffed on Monday morning." Ten-year Spanish government bond yields fell 13 basis points to 4.87 percent, while the Italian equivalents were 12 bps lower at 4.53 percent.
Cyprus is facing a Monday deadline to raise the 5.8 billion euros needed to secure a 10 billion euro international lifeline or face the collapse of its financial system. "We still think that the base case is that they'll find a solution in the end and find this 5.8 billion that's missing for the bailout. We still see a lower probability of a worst case outcome," said Alessandro Giansanti, a rate strategist at ING.
Demand for bonds issued by the euro zone's troubled third and fourth largest economies has been resilient in the face of Cyprus's debt problems on investor conviction that the European Central Bank will step in with bond-buying support. Many in the market expect a last-minute solution to stop Cyprus from becoming the first euro zone state to quit the currency bloc. But analysts also say the proposal to tax previously sacrosanct bank deposits sets a dangerous precedent for the euro zone, making it more vulnerable to bank runs and contagion in future.
"The talk of deposit haircuts took the market by surprise - the final taboo was broken," Sohail Malik, lead portfolio manager for the ECM Special Situations hedge fund. "Even if we get a last minute deal you're going to see a deposit flight in Cyprus and the economy will take a major hit regardless." Such fears helped German Bunds, which are considered a safe haven in times of market stress, to post weekly gains.
But trade was expected to remain volatile given doubts over Cyprus and Italy's struggle to form a government almost a month after its inconclusive elections. "This is not a predictable situation that we are involved in here. I would prefer just to wait until things clear and then put on some trades," Keeble added.