PPP-led coalition's economic performance: revised figures cast shadow over successes

The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) appears to have contradicted its own most recent revised figures in its claims of successes in the economic arena during the past five years. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and revenue collection targets were revised downward by the PPP-led coalition government for the current fiscal year in the Budget Strategy Paper (BSP) to Rs 2,193 billion and 4 percent from budgetary target of Rs 2,381 billion and 4.5 percent respectively.
However, the party claims revenue collection has been increased to Rs 2380 billion (the budgeted figure that was revised downward) in 2013 from Rs 1008 billion in 2008. According to Finance Ministry's BSP, which was approved during the last Cabinet meeting presided over by the then Prime Minister, Raja Pervez Ashraf, in the first week of Mach 2013, GDP growth would be 4 percent and not the budgeted 4.3 percent in the current fiscal year.
The Planning Commission has also challenged that fiscal deficit of 6.5 percent presented in the BSP for the current fiscal year stating that it would exceed 8 percent on account of massive rise in power sector subsidies. The budgetary fiscal deficit estimate of 4.7 per cent has been revised upward to 6.5 per cent in the BSP; however the Planning Commission maintains that it would be impossible to achieve even the revised fiscal deficit target of 6.5 percent in the current fiscal year.
The reason cited by Dr Nadeem ul Haq in a letter to the Ministry of Finance, a copy of which is available with this correspondent, that an adjustment in the fiscal deficit was made due to rise in power sector subsidies from the budgeted Rs 237 billion to Rs 345 billion, which are expected to further escalate by the end of the current year. The PC estimates suggest that the power sector would cost more than Rs 600 billion for the current fiscal year. Sources in the Finance Ministry expressed apprehension that the FBR's revenue collection target would be further revised downward and consequently the deficit would rise further.