Militants' threats to ANP, PPP, MQM: PML-N, PTI, religious parties to cash in on situation

The militants' threat to target election rallies of Awami National Party (ANP) and Pakistan People's Party (PPP) is indicative of hard times for moderate liberal forces, paving the way for Islamist sympathiser political parties to cash in on the situation in the upcoming general elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The existing political scenario in militancy-hit KP indicates that no single political party including Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) will emerge with an overall majority in the 124-member provincial assembly and split voting is also expected in the upcoming general elections on 35 National Assembly general seats.
Traditional politicians from ANP and PPP are facing immense hardship in organising effective election campaign due to militants' threats while PTI, which enjoys popularity in the KP, has no known electables with a traditional 'safe' vote bank. Analysts maintain that PTI, which had performed extremely well in surveys of two to three months ago, has lost its edge due to poor strategy and ignoring potential electables like Khawaja Mohammad Khan Hoti, coupled with some unpopular decisions taken by the provincial leadership in awarding party tickets. The outcome has been a rise in popularity of other parties including the PML-N.
KP has 25 districts namely Peshawar, Mardan, Swabi, Nowshera, Charsadda, Malakand, Swat, Shangla, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Batagram, Haripur, Buner, Lower Dir, Upper Dir, Chitral, Kohistan, Kohat, Karak, Hangu, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, Dera Ismail Khan, Tank and Tor Ghar.
PTI is still enjoying support in Southern belt of the province, which includes Kohat, Karak, Bannu, D I Khan and Tank etc, but the party will face great hardship in wresting seats from electables including in Northern parts of the province such as Peshawar, Mardan, Charsada, Swabi, Dir, Swat, Chitral etc.
The former ruling parties of the province, ANP and PPP, are expected to suffer from a major reduction in the number of seats won for two reasons. First because of appallingly poor performance with all surveys indicating that corruption was by far the worst in KP during the past five years. And second the campaigns of these two parties have been negatively affected as militant outfits have openly threatened to target the election rallies of both the parties; this has left the field open for Jamait Ulema-e-Islam-Fazal (JUI-F), Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and PTI to go ahead with their election campaigns.
According to a senior ANP leader, there is no level playing field in the province, and ANP has been unable to launch mass mobilisation campaign due to security threats and the very first leader of the party who began the campaign‚ Adnan Wazir, was targeted by terrorists in Bannu. An ANP activist was also killed while a party leader and candidate for the provincial assembly constituency PK-21 in Charsadda sustained injuries in remote-controlled attacks on their vehicles in Mingora and Shabqadar on Sunday.
In Peshawar Valley or central KP, which includes Peshawar city, Noshera, Mardan, Charsada and Swabi, the tilt of voters is towards religious political parties or they vote person-specific, referred to as electables. NA-1 Peshawar is the most crucial seat as Imran Khan of PTI has announced he will contest against Haji Ghulam Ahmad Bilour of ANP, while Shabir Ahmad Khan of JI is also a candidate from the same constituency. PPP is still undecided whether to field any candidate against the trio. A tough competition is expected between ANP's Bilour and Imran Khan. Commentators argue that if Imran steals the show it would be a big blow to ANP as it is a stronghold of the Bilours.
NA-2 Peshawar is another key constituency which is considered to be the home constituency of PPP's former federal communication minister Arbab Alamgir Khan. A neck and neck contest is expected between Arbab Alamgir Khan and his rival Arbab Najibullah of ANP. NA-3 Peshawar is all set to greet PPP's billionaire and former MNA Noor Alam Khan, Arbab Inamullah of ANP, Haji Ghulam Ali of JUI-F, Isararullah of JI and Sajid Nawaz of PTI. The competition is again believed to be challenging and Noor Alam and Haji Ghulam Ali have emerged as strong contenders.
NA-4 Peshawar has always witnessed a tough contest but this time competition would be even more interesting with some new comers contesting. ANP has a stronger record. Arbab Muhammad Zahir Khan won this National Assembly seat twice in 1990 and 1993, while his party's candidate Arbab Saadullah Khan won the seat in 1997 before Sabir Hussain Awan of Mutahida Majlis-e-Aml (MMA) won elections from NA-4 in 2002. However, Arbab Muhammad Zahir Khan won the seat back for ANP in 2008 elections.
In 2013 PPP's Iftikhar Iqbal Jhagra who left PTI, is considered to be the most favourite candidate against Gulzar Khan of PTI, Mufti Syed Qamar of JUI-F and Nasir Khan Mosazai of PML-N.
For NA-5 (Nowshera-I), the real battle is expected to be fought between Pervez Khattak of PTI, Asif Luqman Qazi of JI, son of late Qazi Hussain Ahmad, Eng Tariq Khattak of PPP and Eng Dawood Khattak. The late Qazi Hussain Ahmad managed to win from this constituency in 2002 after an agreement was reached with Tariq Khattak who is this time contesting on PPP's ticket. The consensus amongst analysts at this point is that Pervez Khattak of PTI may emerge victorious if he manages to strike a seat to seat adjustment with any political party.
NA-7 (Charsadda-I) is the most crucial constituency as ANP Chief Asfand Yar Wali Khan is all set to try his luck once again at the polls. He defeated PPP's Naseer Mohammad Khan with a huge margin by bagging 57,234 votes in 2008 elections. Naseer Khan secured only 17,833 votes and is expected to get the PTI ticket to contest against the ANP chief.
According to analysts, the ANP chief might face a tough time in the upcoming general elections due to poor performance of his party's five-year rule in the province. Additionally ANP chief will not be able to launch an election campaigns as he is facing life threats from militants. Asfand Yar Wali has already escaped one life attempt by militants.
NA-8 Charsadda II is a stronghold of Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao who managed to win from the constituency in the past two elections. Sherpao who renamed his party Qaumi Watan Party (QWP) is currently negotiating with JUI-F for seat adjustment in order to defeat the ANP's candidate Bashir Khan Umerzai and Jahanzeb Khan of PTI. Analysts are expecting a tough competition in the constituency where the three heavyweights will try their luck on May 11.
NA-9 (Mardan-I) has always remained the favourite of Hotis. Khawaja Mohammad Khan Hoti alias Toti Khan, who managed to win from this constituency in the previous election, is contesting on PML-N ticket against the ANP's heavyweight and former chief minister Amir Haider Khan Hoti. Nasir Khan of PTI has jumped into the fray with a slogan of 'New Pakistan' but his chances are not that bright. Analysts are upbeat that Amir Haider Khan Hoti will give a tough time to Toti Khan. Another candidate of JUI-F Shuja-ul-Mulk is also not too far behind in the race.
Maunala Mohammad Qasim of JUI-F has always clinched NA-10 (Mardan-II) and will give a tough time to his opponents Mohammad Farooq Khan of ANP and Nawabzada Abdul Qadir Khan of PPP. PTI has awarded ticket to Engineer Ali Mohammad with good repute among the locals and may bring laurels to the party.
PPP's Khanzada Khan, Inayat Khan of ANP, Colonel Sher Afghan (Retd) of PML-N and Mujahid Khan of PTI are flexing muscles against each other from NA-11 (Mardan-III), while PTI is yet to field any potential candidate able to push these heavyweights against the wall. NA-12 (Swabi) will witness a tough contest between ANP's Haji Rehmanullah and Usman Khan Tarakai of Awami Jamhoori Itehad Pakistan, both former members of the National Assembly. Tarakai defeated ANP President Asfandyar Wali Khan in 2008 elections and still enjoys popularity.
From NA-13 (Swabi), Sarwar Khan of ANP, Sheram Khan Tarakai of Awami Jamhuri Itehad Pakistan, Maulana Ataul Haq Darvesh of JUI-F and Asad Qaiser of PTI are in the fray against each other. However, any prediction at this stage will be premature as a competition is expected.
NA-24 D I Khan is the most crucial constituency, which has produced many key political figures of Pakistan politics including the former Deputy Speaker Faisal Karim Kundi and JUI-F Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman. Kundi who defeated the Maulana in 2008 general election may not contest this time and it is likely that PPP will field Senator Waqar Ahmad Khan to contest against the JUI-F chief. While Musarrat Shaheen, a former Pashto film actress is also optimistic about her chances of beating JUI-F chief however analysts do not consider her a string candidate. PTI does have public support but no prominent personality from the region has joined PTI. It is still unclear who will get PTI ticket from NA 24 for 2013 elections.
NA-27 (Lakki Marwat) is another important constituency of the province where arch rivals PPP and PML-N are extending support to Salim Saifullah Khan of PML like-minded against JUI-F Chief Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman. The PTI is still looking for a candidate. A neck-and-neck competition is expected in Karak and Kohat where PML-N, PTI, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Sami (JUI-S) and ANP have fielded potential candidates. In Karak, according to discussions with the local political observers, a tough competition is expected among former MNA Shah Abdul Aziz of JUI-S, Shams-ur-Rehman of PTI and Rehmat Salam of PML-N.
In Kohat, a similar contest is likely between Malik Asad of PML-N, Shehryar Khan Afridi of PTI, Khurshid Begum of ANP, Gohar Saidullah Khan of JUI-F and an independent candidate Shamim Afridi, father of Senator Abbas Khan Afridi.
Analysts anticipate a tough competition in the forthcoming general elections with PML-N candidate Malik Asad, brother of late Malak Saad, Additional IGP who has a strong family background and service to the people of Kohat in particular and the KP in general, against former MNA Khurshid Begum of ANP who also has a strong vote bank due to her community service.
The NA-32 (Chitral) is a guaranteed seat of former President General Pervez Musharraf (Retd), as he is all set to give a humiliating defeat to all the candidates either from PPP, PML-N, JI, JUI-F or PTI. The reason: the former President met the area's long-standing demand to open Lowari tunnel.
The Hazara region is bracing for a change and PML-N has so far emerged as the most popular political party and is expected to bag the majority of NA seats. The reason behind the sudden change in Hazara's political landscape is due to renaming of NWFP as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa leading to Hazara electables parting ways with PML-Q and supporting PML-N, which has offered the possibility of a new federating unit, Hazara province, Sardar Shah Jehan Yousuf, a former PML-Q MNA and a potential electable is now contesting on PML-N ticket from NA 21 (Mansehra-II), while another PML-N stalwart Sardar Mehtab Ahmad Khan Abbasi is almost certain to be victorious due to his services to the area.
Omer Ayub Khan, who recently joined PML-N, enjoys popularity in NA-19 (Haripur) while Baba Haider Zaman, a flag-bearer for a separate Hazara province has also jumped into the fray with a pledge to make his dream of a new province into a reality if voted into power. Baba Zaman is up in arms against Murtaza javed Iqbal Abbasi of PML-N from NA-18 (Abbottabad). However, the victory of PTI's Azam Khan Swati from NA-20 (Mansehra-I), is done deal. PTI does enjoy immense support but lacks electables however if the voters do decide to vote for change then the electable card will no longer be the trump card in the province.