India and its south Asian neighbours are set to avoid widespread drought for a fourth straight year, thanks to a normal monsoon in 2013, a global weather forum said on Friday, raising the prospect of bumper grain supplies to squeeze world food prices.
The June to September monsoon is vital for 55 percent of India's farmland, which has no irrigation facilities. For one of the world's largest agricultural producers, the rains can make the difference between being an exporter or importer of staples such as rice and sugar.
"This year's monsoon, as a whole, is most likely to be within the normal range," said D.S. Pai, lead forecaster of the Indian weather office, releasing the consensus forecast of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, a group of weather experts. Forecasting the monsoon is difficult and India itself only makes two official attempts, one due on April 26 and another in June, when the rains should have covered half the country. It is working with many of the world's experts to improve accuracy.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has found it hard to predict extremes of weather and has twice gone wrong since 2005. Added to that, the monsoon can be patchy and last year, even though overall rains were ample, many areas had drought. Agriculture accounts for about 15 percent of Asia's third-largest economy, with more than 800 million Indians living in rural areas. Ample harvests can also help keep a lid on food inflation, which is around a stubborn nine percent.
Forecasting has become a big event and private forecaster Skymet issued a party-style invitation for its predictions on Wednesday, which said rains would be average. In March, Pai told Reuters that India was set for average rains in 2013. The rains could be less than average in some parts of Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the forum said, while Nepal and Bhutan could get heavier showers.
"The more likely scenario is for below normal rainfall over some areas of north-western and southern parts of south Asia, and for above normal rainfall in some areas along Himalayan region," Pai said, reading from the consensus statement. Following bumper harvests in recent years, India is exporting wheat to keep the grain from rotting in overflowing bins.
World grain prices touched record highs late last summer after a bruising year that featured a historic US drought, dryness in Eastern Europe and a third spike in global food prices in four years. The next few months will be crucial as weather conditions in the United States, the world's top wheat exporter, will determine its harvest. The El Nino weather phenomenon was unlikely to influence monsoon rains in the first half of the June-September season, the weather group said.
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