Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) 2013 election strategy is distinct from its own past strategies as well as those being employed by other political parties.
While the immediate family of assassinated leader Benazir Bhutto is undoubtedly centre stage yet no single person has taken visible charge of the campaign, which may partly be explained by the fact that the President, regarded as the final decision maker, has been disallowed by the courts to campaign, and partly due to the Taliban threat to the party's leadership which may well account for President Zardari's decision to keep his son Bilawal safe and away from the Z A Bhutto/Benazir Bhutto-style jalsas.
Be that as it may, photographs prominently displayed throughout the country include the party's two martyred leaders namely the party's creator Z A Bhutto and his daughter and political heir Benazir Bhutto as well as Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, (not yet eligible to stand for elections due to his age) - a decision that seeks to emphasise continuity of the blood dynasty. The fact that the Taliban have also threatened attacks against those who attend PPP, ANP and MQM jalsas may explain why these parties are not as actively engaged in organising jalsas as in the past and needless to add jalsas are still regarded as a major component of an election campaign.
So what is the PPP's strategy this year? Few doubt that the real head of the party and not the titular head like Gilani or Raja Pervez Ashraf is taking all the major decisions with respect to the election campaign and his views/personality have left an indelible mark on the strategy; thus, irrespective of President Zardari's court directed constraints, his strategy designed to ensure that the party is re-elected or is able to form the next government through a coalition is guiding the party's campaign. And in this context it is relevant to note that President Zardari is reportedly convinced that the PPP will retain its seats in Sindh as electables (reflecting the continued predominance of the baradari system) instead of performance during the last five years would determine the election day results; in Punjab the President has indicated in private meetings that Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf would dissipate PML (N) 2008 lead while the PPPP's South Punjab province card would ensure that South Punjab votes for PPP. There has been no seat to seat adjustment in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with ANP no doubt due to the fact that surveys indicate that ANP would lose big in the province to PML (N) and PTI. However with Punjab and Sindh seats the President reckons he would have enough to from a coalition with MQM or another party and form the next government.
The fact that the party is being attacked on its appalling performance in the economic arena may well lose it some votes and it is to dispel this impression that the party's focus rightly is. The party claims improvements in the economy on six counts between 2007-8 and 2013: GDP from 10,452 billion to 19,436 billion rupees, GDP growth rate from 1.7 percent to 4.3 percent, inflation from 25 to 8 percent, fiscal deficit from 7.6 to 6.5 percent, tax revenue from 1008 billion to 2380 billion rupees and foreign remittances from 6.45 billion to 14 billion dollars.
Critics of the government as well as analysts/economists would unhesitatingly refer to two factors compromising the veracity of the above claims. First and foremost, the 2013 achievement data (excluding of course the last quarter of the year) has been taken from the Budget Strategy Paper (BSP) that was approved by the Raja Pervez Ashraf-led cabinet a few weeks before its constitutional end. BSP was considered unrealistic by the Planning Commission which, inexplicably, was not taken on board prior to seeking cabinet approval through a summary prepared by the Ministry of Finance. Donor agencies including the International Monetary Fund do not lend credence to the BSP's claim that the budget deficit for the current year would be contained at 6.5 percent, as opposed to the budgeted 4.7 percent, with independent analysts as well as the Planning Commission maintaining that the deficit would be closer to 8 percent or at least 0.4 percent in excess of what the PPP government inherited in 2007-2008.
In addition, data released with respect to the Gross Domestic Product as well as inflation is suspect due to two decisions implemented by Dr Hafeez Sheikh: (i) to disallow the Federal Bureau of Statistics, working under the Ministry of Finance, to begin to calculate GDP on the basis of changes in the contribution of different sectors to the economy premised on five to six years of detailed sectoral surveys that were approved by the 2006 cabinet. This implied that a 3.2 percent growth rate could be revised upward to 3.9 percent GDP; and (ii) manipulating the weightage given to different factors in calculating the rate of inflation, thus weight given to food considered to be spearheading the rate of price rise was reduced by 6 percent - from 40 to 34 percent resulting in a massive decline in the rate of inflation. The comparable data therefore is no longer comparing oranges and apples which belong to the same genre but apples and meat.
Secondly, the PPP's claims also fail to take account of official downward revision of budgetary targets. Thus revenue calculation given as 2,380 billion rupees has already been scaled downward by the Federal Board of Revenue by around 200 billion rupees and is expected to be further reduced as and when the caretakers begin to extend bailout packages to the Pakistan Steel Mills and other autonomous entities as well as to the power sector in excess of what was budgeted.
However, remittances have risen dramatically which maybe attributed to not only the efforts of the State Bank of Pakistan but also the continuing global recession which accounts for historically low interest rates compelling many a Pakistani working abroad to send money home.
The PPP is also bizarrely focusing on its performance in the energy sector during Benazir Bhutto's uncompleted (roughly half its mandated) term when Independent Power Producers were supported instead of its just completed full five year term. It maybe recalled that the IPPs were opposed because the PPP government had agreed to a tariff with them in excess of the tariff of regional countries with which the country competed in exports. And furthermore what is ironical is that the IPPs are in court today for failure of the PPP-led coalition government to pay off dues.
The PPP leadership must accept that its performance in the economic arena, including the energy sector, has been abysmal and it is simply not tenable to defend that performance. Perhaps a better strategy would be to pass the buck to being forced to induct a Finance Minister who was reportedly an establishment nominee rather than any long-term jiyala or indeed a close associate with President Zardari.
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