In Sindh, the election scenario looks murky, at least to the extent of Karachi, Hyderabad, Mirpurkhas and Sukkur, and a few other places where people are in grip of uncertainty, fearing that the holding of fair and free elections may be a distant cry. MQM, ANP and PPPP are facing persistent attacks and leaders of MQM, which has an overwhelming vote bank in urban areas, particularly in Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur and Mirpurkhas, are mourning their dead.
They have no time for electioneering as repeatedly their offices, workers and sympathisers are being targeted and killed. Such being the situation in urban Sindh, rural Sindh presents a different election scenario altogether: election campaigns are in full swing there.
It is unlikely that May 11 election will change the age-old pattern of voting and throw-up new faces. Take for instance the case of Dadu district, which has always been considered a game changer in politics and a stronghold of PPPP, may sprung big surprise for the 'Jiyalas'.
The local population is angry with PPPP as during the floods nor otherwise did the elected representatives of the area fulfil promises made to them during the last election campaigns. Flood-hit population is still without shelter and speaks loudly against the PPPP. They are no more the voters of the 'Bhuttos' who had founded the party. Committed voters could be heard saying loud and clear that PPPP has been hijacked and destroyed. They have clearly distanced from the party. Former provincial education minister Pir Mazharul Haq's decision not to contest the elections this time from Dadu and instead bringing his son to contest, clearly indicates this and he has smelled what could be in the offing for him.
From indications available here, it will not be the party which will carry the votes in this area. In fact, it will be the feudal influence that will win. Liaquat Jatoi, the son of late Abdul Hameed Khan Jatoi, who was one of the most popular and upright leaders of his time, holds the trump card and will give tough fight to PPPP candidates. Out of four provincial assembly and two National Assembly seats, Jatoi hopes to capture all provincial assembly and one National Assembly seat.
Dadu which got title of 'Beirut' for playing a major role during the Movement for Restoration of Democracy (MRD), was the strong hold of PPPP for many years but it went in the hands of Liaquat Jatoi (who is the man of anti-PPPP camp) during the Musharraf regime. Five out of six seats of assemblies were in the hands of Jatoi and his candidates, Liaquat's son Karim Khan was District Nazim, and his two nephews were Taulka Nazims of Mehar and Khairpur Nathan Shah TMAs while his other people had won the seats of Taulka Nazims of Dadu and other TMAs.
Though, Liaquat Jatoi has been emerged as 'Modren Wadera' of ditrsict and had occupied thousands of acres land of Katcha area to establish his 'Keti Jatoi' but people of district particularly of rural areas are in his support as they are saying that PPPP's lawmakers were also like waderas and they had done nothing for the welfare of voters and supporters.
In current scenario, where PPPP versus Liqat Jatoi (PML-N) situation is continued but contesting of elections by the candidates of PML-F is also could not be ignored as Ten-Party-Alliance does not exist in Dadu district. Functional League's three candidates Sartdar Chakar Khan Shahani, Syed Mohammad Ali Shah and GhulamRasool Babbar are contesting election NA-232, PS-74 and Ps-75 respectively. These candidates are considered as holders of personal vote-banks.
"If Liaquat Jatoi failed to pursue them, they would effectively divide the votes of Jatoi's candidates and if they would announce their withdrawal, Jatoi can sweep these three seats as well," said local political observers. NA-232 (Dadu-Johi): The real competition is emerging between PPPP's Rafiq Ahmed Jamali and PML-N's Karim Khan Jatoi, the elder son of Liaquat Jatoi while PML-F's Sardar Chakar Khan Shahani is also a candidate.
Karim had enjoyed the top slot of District Nazim Dadu while Rafiq remained two-times MNA from this constituency and Shahani had never won any of election from this or any other constituency. "Though position of PPPP contesters on all seats of district is weak against the candidates of PML-N but Rafiq Jamali can defeat Karim Jatoi as Jamali is Sardar (tribal-lord) of his tribe and he has personal vote bank as well. Besides, Rafiq who remained State Minister for Agriculture and Food in previous government is also District President of PPPP.
There are a total of 2,96,656 registered voters in this constituency of Dadu. NA-233 (Mehar-Kherpur Nathan Shah): Very interesting competition is seems on this constituency where PML-N's heavyweight, former Chief Minister Sindh and Federal Minister for Water and Power Liaqat Jatoi is contesting election and his major rival is PPPP's young man Imran Zafar Laghari who was MPA in previous Sindh Assembly.
There are a total of 3, 06,037 registered voters here. According to local political observers this is the home-constituency of Liaqat Jatoi where from he received 34,019 votes in the 2008 elections despite the tragedy of Benazir Bhutto's assassination so he can easily won this seat.
"Another factor which also can play a major role in winning of Liaquat which were the floods 2010, heavy rains 2011 and flood of 2012, thousands of families of this constituency had suffered at highest level and flood-damaged homes are still waiting for rehabilitation", they said. PS-74 (Dadu Taluka and city): Here we can see big change of face as Pir Mazharul Haq who was in the race of becoming Chief Minister Sindh has got party ticket for his elder son Pir Mujeebul HAq instead of himself contesting election.
PML-N's Syed Zafar Ali Shah, PML-F's Syed Mohammad Ali Shah and Abdul Jabbar Babbar, independent candidate are considered as major rivals of PPPP's candidate. There are a total of 1,38,861 registered voters in this constituency and Babbar tribe has a big share in it while this time, Biradari vote has clear importance in rural areas of Sindh.
"It's Good-luck for PPPP's candidate that he is not facing such powerful candidate as rival so Pir Mujeeb can easily win this seat if Pir Mazhar would take decisions in the light of financial benefits of people as he minted billions of rupees during the previous government" , claimed local political observers. PS-75 (Johi): A total of 1, 35,853 registered voters would elect their representative from this constituency of Johi, the most flood-hit area of district.
The voters of this particular constituency are divided in the tribes, Laghari, Babbar and Jamali tribes have big share in total registered votes of the constituency. PPPP's Syed Ghulam Shah Jilani, PML-N's Dr Banda Ali Laghari and PML-F's Ghulam Rasool Babbar are the main contesters of the seat. The competition would be emerged between these three heavyweights.
The local political observers are claiming that PML-N's candidate has a lead in competition as people are fad-up with Ghulam Shah Jilani due to his non-social attitude. PS-76 (Kherpur Nathan Shah): Liaqat Jatoi is also a candidate on this seat where PPPP's Parveen Aziz Junejo is giving tough competition to Jatoi but local political observers are seeing lead in the side of Liaqat Jatoi here.
A total of 1,39,391 registered votes are available on this constituency and the most are flood-hit people whom houses even could not be rehabilitated by the PPPP-led government. PPPP's Imran Zafar Laghari was MPA from this seat during last five years. PS-77 (Mehar): Liaqat Jatoi's brother Sadaqat Ali Khan Jatoi is candidate of PML-N on this seat of 1,27,345 registered voters while PPPP's Fayyaz But is his major rival.
Fayyaz remained MPA from this seat for last five years and he again succeeded to get the party ticket but local apolitical observers are not seeing Mr But as strong candidate as this is Jatoi's home constituency so he is emerged as hot-contester in this election.
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