Most of the political parties have announced their manifestoes for May 11 general elections with their "focus" on minimum wages. Although, labour was no longer a Concurrent subject, on May 01, 2012, the then Prime Minister announced an increase in minimum wage from Rs 7000 to Rs 8000 per month. The same day, the then Chief Minister of Punjab also announced a further increase of Rs 1000 per month: minimum wage of Rs 9000 per month. Thereafter PML-N announced its election manifesto proposing increase of minimum wage from Rs 8000 to Rs 15000 without realising that Pakistan's present day economy will suffer a reduction of overall employment by about nine percent with a possible increase in price, as also a possible loss of about five million jobs.
PPP in its manifesto promised Rs 18000 as minimum wage. As if not to be left behind, JUI (F) announced one tola gold value (Rs 58,000) as minimum wage. All these promises are nothing but political gimmickry, based on political whims and fancy. Raising minimum wage arbitrarily not only is unscientific but a downright disastrous act. It will introduce a host of negative unintended consequences. Increases in minimum wage have both positive and negative effects. One is the intended poverty reduction effect of raising the wages for the poorest quartile of our population. The other is the more subtle effect of resultant increase in the cost of such wage increase on the employer. It will also stoke unemployment. Furthermore, increase in wages impact will result in increase in prices, which in turn will place additional pressure on an upward trend in inflation. This is the negative consequence of increase in wages in manifestoes. Increase in wages means more people living in poverty, willing to work for lesser wages. It will also increase expansion in the already bloated black market economy and result in a fall in tax revenue for the Government. This will result in a dead weight loss scenario. Increase will compress employment and consequently GDP growth. Labour economists predict that a ten percent increase in minimum wage decreases employment in the range of one to three percent. Have the framers of the political manifesto examined the disastrous consequences of this proposed Manifesto - unless the Manifesto was for point scoring and for political expediency.
In none of the political party manifestoes there are commitments to extend existing Labour Law Legislation to agriculture labour, plantation labour, cattle and sheep breeding, poultry farming. Even JUI (F) in its manifesto nowhere has laid down as to how and where the Islamic provisions will be introduced in existing Labour Legislation. No party has responded to the demand of labour to abolish contract system of work, or efforts to be made to regulate and abolish this system. There's no manifesto to deal with proposed text of future labour legislations in the country. It is not within their radar as yet. Their manifestoes are silent about the welfare and protection measures for the disabled workers and workers in the unorganised sector. No promise of endeavour has been expressed to protect the rights of home-based workers; especially home-based women workers in Pakistan. These manifestoes make no reference to Labour Judiciary, and to efforts aimed at expeditious disposal of cases and redressal of workers grievances, or to revamp Labour Judiciary. The concept of Alternate Labour Dispute Resolution is not within the purview of politicians. Notwithstanding Baldia Garment Factory disaster resulting in death of more than 250 workers, these manifestoes do not make any reference as to how these Industrial Disasters will be avoided and how such national disaster will not be mishandled in future. None of the political manifestoes gives to the working class consolation on whether any improvement would be made in Inspection of Factories and in Occupational Safety and Health of Worker. Little do our politicians realise that sound industrial relations are key to economic progress with social inclusion. They seem to be either unaware or oblivious of Industrial Relations problems. In their rallies and political speeches, leaders tend to indulge in mud slinging and empty slogans with no concrete solutions forthcoming. According to Sultan Mehmood, a Dutch Government Adviser on Macroeconomic policy, if PML (N) and PPP are to go ahead with their proposed increases of minimum wage from Rs 8000 to Rs 15000 per month, Pakistan's economy will experience a reduction of overall employment by about nine percent with a possible increase in prices. There is a potential loss of about five million jobs. Not only will it harm the very people it is intended to protect, it will cause a great deal of confusion. A famous Chinese philosopher has wisely remarked: "By three methods we may learn wisdom. First by reflection, which is noblest; second by imitation, which is easiest and third by experience, which is the bitterest." Imitating Barack Obama's proposal of increase in minimum wages in his State of the Union address, our politicians have announced increases in wages without explaining reasons. No explanation of methodology and analysis, if made any that led them to reach the particular numbers that they had floated. Thereafter, none of the politicians, in public rallies, talk shows or even articles in newspapers has explained as to how he expects to achieve his manifesto's objectives. If the US President announced the wage increase it was based on team of renowned economists who advised him on the issue. We have yet to find a similar team or individual of such stature and qualifications who advise various parties in Pakistan on Labour Laws and problems and as to how these problems will be resolved, including major Labour Laws reforms, with a possible text of proposed amendment in Labour Laws.
It is recalled that with the promulgation of 18th Amendment and deletion of Concurrent List, including Item No 26 and 27 from the list dealing with the subject of labour, each of the four provinces is to promulgate its own Labour Laws. Industrial Relations Act 2008 passed in the Assembly, PML (N) had evoked a walkout instead of a debate on it, leaving the field open to pass the law. When the decision of Air League was delivered by our Supreme Court, (decision reported in 2011 SCMR 1254) none of our legislatures was aware of the decision, and without any of the respective Provincial Assembly passing resolution under Article 144 of the Constitution, authorising Majlis-e-Shoora to pass on the Act for regulating Labour Legislations on their behalf, our wise, elected legislature office holders silently approved Industrial Relations Act 2012 without realising that they were not constitutionally entitled to do so. That law was passed both in Senate and National Assembly the day it was presented without any discussion. No doubt those who have passed Industrial Relations Act 2012 were our elected legislators. We had given them mandate. However, Fyodor Dostoevsky, a Russian novelist, had wisely remarked: "Power is given only to those who dare to lower themselves and pick it up." These legislators left us in March 2013 and also left workers suffering with uncertainty following the passage of IRA 2012 in haste. Little do they realise the trail of misery and suffering as also chaos, confusion and uncertainty that they have left behind. In Sindh, except for reviving the already expired Industrial Relations Act 2008, no other Labour Legislation was passed or promulgated leaving Sindh, technically with no Labour Legislation in view of Article 270AAA (8) of the Constitution on and after 30.6.2011. Alas our poor labour! They have been let down by false hopes, empty promises, hollow slogans and manifestoes with no basis or foundation.
(The writer is an advocate of Supreme Court of Pakistan)
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