THE RUPEE: modest gain

Stable trend was witnessed on the currency market during the week, ended on May 4. On the interbank market, the rupee picked up 21 paisa against the dollar for buying at Rs 98.27 and it also gained 20 paisa for selling at Rs 98.30.
On the open market, the rupee followed the same pattern, picking up 10 paisa in terms of the dollar for buying at Rs 99.80 and it also rose by five paisa for selling at Rs 99.90. The national currency, however, shed slightly in relation to the euro losing five paisa for buying and selling at 130.25 and Rs 130.50.
The rupee may move both ways against the dollar in the near future, money experts said. The dollar buying pressure likely to ease as Pakistan would be required to take a decision to take a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme in June-July or October-November 2013 because the country would need to make a huge payment of SDR 1.685 billion to the IMF by November 2013.
Some experts attributed the rupee's fall to the deteriorating law and situation, severe power crisis in most parts of industrial hubs across country and fast approaching elections on May 11 are keeping business and trade in uncertainties because of hovering fears about the outcome of polls result.
INTERBANK MARKET RATES: On Monday, the rupee drifted lower against the dollar, losing seven paisa for buying and selling at 98.48 and 98.50.
On Tuesday, the rupee, however, gained modestly in terms of the greenback, picking up two paisa for buying and selling at 98.46 and 98.48. On Wednesday, all trading centres were closed due to May Day holiday.
On Thursday, the rupee, however, rose by six paisa in terms of the dollar for buying and selling at 98.4O and it also picked up five paisa for selling at 98.43. On Friday, the rupee picked up 13 paisa against the dollar for buying and selling at 98.27 and 98.30.
OPEN MARKET RATES: on April 29, at open, the rupee shed 10 paisa versus the dollar for buying at 99.80 and the national currency dropped by five paisa for selling and 99.50, they said. While, the rupee continued its fall versus the euro, shedding more 40 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 130.20 and Rs 130.45, they said.
On April 30, the rupee crossed the barrier of 100 versus the dollar but at close, the national currency shed 10 paisa for buying at 99.80 and the rupee came down with a loss of five paisa for selling at 99.95, they said. While, the rupee slipped by five paisa against the euro for buying and selling at Rs 130.25 and Rs 130.50, they said. On May 1 markets remained closed.
On May 2, the rupee fell by 10 paisa against the dollar for buying at 99.90 and the national currency also shed five paisa for selling at 100.00, they said. The rupee continued its slide in relation to euro, losing 99 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 131.20 and Rs 131.45, they said.
On May 3, the rupee gained 10 paisa against the dollar for buying at Rs 99.80, while it remained firm on selling side at Rs 100.00, they said. The rupee strengthened in relation to euro, gaining 95 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 130.25 and Rs 130.50, they said.
On May 4, the rupee extended its rise versus the dollar, gaining 10 paisa for buying at Rs 99.70 and Rs 99.90. The rupee dropped five paisa in relation to euro for buying and selling at Rs 130.30 and Rs 130.55.
OVERSEAS OUTLOOK FOR DOLLARS: In the first Asian trade, the dollar fell broadly and sterling hit a two-month high, as traders continued to reduce their exposure to the greenback after data last week showed the US economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter.
The dollar declined against a swathe of currencies and dropped 0.3 percent versus the yen to 97.73 yen, edging away from a four-year high of 99.95 yen set earlier in April after the Bank of Japan unleashed its drastic monetary stimulus. The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at 54.27, the greenback was at 3.0305 versus the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was available at 6.1650 in terms of the Chinese yuan. Inter bank buy/sell rates for the taka against the dollar on Monday: 77.93-77.94 (77.9400-77.9450). Call Money Rates: 06.50-07.25 percent (previous 06.25-08.00 percent).
In the second Asian trade, the euro fell, hurt by slowing consumer demand in Germany, although losses are likely to be limited by expectations the Federal Reserve's ultra-loose policy will be maintained and weigh on the dollar.
German retail sales fell for the second month running in March, confounding forecasts of a rise. Coming a day after April inflation in the eurozone's largest economy hit its lowest in more than two years, the numbers bolstered expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank on Thursday.
The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 54.24, the US currency was at 3.0340 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the greenback was at 6.165 in relation to the Chinese yuan.
Inter bank buy/sell rates for the taka against the dollar on Tuesday: 77.93-77.97 (77.93-77.94). Call Money Rates: 06.50-07.00 percent (previous 06.50-08.00 percent).
In the fourth Asian trade, the euro eased versus the dollar on Thursday and stayed below the previous day's two-month high, but further losses could be limited with the market already positioned for a possible European Central Bank interest rate cut.
The euro inched down 0.1 percent to $1.3169. The single currency had hit a two-month high of $1.3243 on Wednesday on trading platform EBS, as the dollar retreated after data showed that US companies hired the fewest employees in seven months in April.
The dollar was available versus the Indian rupee at Rs 53.74, the greenback was trading against the Malaysian ringgit at 3.0560 and the US currency was at 6.1551 in terms of the Chinese yuan. Inter bank buy/sell rates for the taka against the dollar on Thursday: 77.93-77.94 (77.93-77.97). Call Money Rates: 06.50-07.00 percent (previous 06.10-08.00 percent. 77.93-77.97 (77.93-77.94). Call Money Rates: 06.50-07.00 percent (previous 06.50-08.00 percent).
In the final Asian trade, the dollar held steady versus the yen on Friday, with the focus on whether US jobs data later in the day will add to concerns about the economic outlook and bolster bets for the Federal Reserve to stick with its bond-buying programme.
Economists polled by Reuters are looking for job growth of 145,000 last month, up from 88,000 for March. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 7.6 percent. The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 53.89, the greenback was at 3.0355 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was available at 6.155 in relation to the Chinese yuan.
At the week-end, the dollar surged more than one percent against the yen on Friday to a one-week high after surprisingly strong US April jobs data fuelled optimism the US economy may be more resilient than some had feared.
US employment rose more than expected last month, with non-farm payrolls rising 165,000, while job increases for the previous months were revised higher. The unemployment rate fell to a four-year low of 7.5 percent.