SATURDAY MAY 04: GDP growth target revised down to 3.59 percent

ISLAMABAD: The National Accounts Committee (NAC) on Friday revised downward the target for gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the current fiscal year to 3.59 percent from the budget estimate of 4.3 percent. Sources said that GDP for 2012-13 as well as previous year was calculated on the new base year of 2005-06 and growth targets of all sectors have been missed.
A senior official of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) said that the GDP growth target was estimated at 3.16 percent for the current fiscal; with base year 1999-2000. The meeting of National Accounts Committee reviewed and approved the final estimates of National Accounts for the fiscal year 2010-11 and 2011-12 and provisional accounts for 2012-13.
The committee revised downward agriculture sector growth to 3.35 percent for the current fiscal year against 4.1 percent target fixed at the time of budget for 2012-13. Crop output was worked out at 3.2 percent on the basis of 2.3 growth in important crops and 6.68 percent in other crops. A negative growth of 2.93 percent is in cotton ginning. The livestock grew by 3.6 percent, forestry 0.13 per cent and fishing 0.65 percent.
The industrial sector target was also revised downward to 3.49 percent from 4.39 per cent for the current fiscal year. The growth in mining and quarrying is estimated at 7.58 percent for the current fiscal year, manufacturing at 3.51 percent. The growth in large scale sector is estimated at 2.83 percent; small scale 8.23 percent. A negative growth of 3.2 per cent is estimated in electricity generation and distribution and gas distribution. The construction sector is estimated to grow by 5.18 percent. The growth in commodity producing sector is estimated at 3.42 per cent.
The growth of services sector is projected to decrease to 3.71 per cent for the current fiscal year from 4.6 per cent. The growth in wholesale and retail trade is estimated at 2.52 per cent, transport, storage and communications 3.44 per cent, finance and insurance 6.64 per cent, housing services (ownership of dwellings) 3.99 per cent, general government services 5.6 per cent and other private services 3.99 per cent for the current fiscal year. The national account committee has estimated GDP growth at 4.36 per cent for last fiscal year, 2011-12 against provisional target of 3.7 per cent.