Zloty up, forint pauses rally

The Polish zloty edged up for the first time in a week on Friday after a rally in the forint decelerated and Prague stocks fell after miner NWR lost more than 14 percent. In the past week, the forint has gained over 0.5 percent to the euro on benign economic growth data while the zloty was down one percent.
On Friday, the zloty gained 0.4 percent to trade at 4.171 per euro at 1450 GMT. Central European stock markets mostly fell on Friday, with Czech miner NWR losing more than 14 percent, while the forint steadied after a rally this week triggered by data showing Hungary has emerged from recession. In the past week, the forint has gained 0.6 percent while the zloty is down 1.2 percent. On Friday, the zloty gained 0.15 percent to 4.181 per euro. New World Resources' (NWR) shares hit a record low a day after posting its worst quarterly loss since its 2008 stock market debut and saying it would close or sell some operations and cut jobs.
SEB bank recommended using the forint's recent rally as a chance to go long zloty against the Hungarian currency, preferring Poland's economic fundamentals and political backdrop. "Both currencies are stretched," it said. Hungary's economy broke out of recession according to official data released on Wednesday, an unexpected reprieve in a region undermined by weak euro zone demand for its exports.
The figures, though, have not dented expectations of more interest rate cuts in Hungary and bond yields have dropped to record lows, with demand for government debt helping the forint. "We've revisited the outlook for Hungarian monetary policy for the remainder of the year and now see scope for the policy rate to fall to 3.50 percent by September," Morgan Stanley said in a note.
Rafal Benecki for ING Bank Slaski said: "4.20 zlotys per euro look tempting, but last two days brought weaker figures from US ... so (US debt) yields picked and that provided support for EM and Polish government bonds as a result euro/zloty stabilised at 4,18 and now should perform better." Hungary's economy broke out of recession in the first quarter, according to data on Wednesday, an unexpected reprieve in a region undermined by weak euro zone demand for its exports.