Central European currencies are seen firming in the next 12 months due to expected recovery in the region's main trade markets in the euro zone, a recent Reuters poll of analysts showed. Median forecasts in the poll see the zloty gaining 1.1 percent in the next 6 months from Tuesday's close, and firming 3.5 percent to 4.0 against the euro by May next year.
The analysts see the forint strengthening 3.2 percent in the next 12 months and the crown 2.6 percent. Romania's leu which has well outperformed the region so far this year, is seen flat on the one-year horizon.
"In the short term the zloty may remain under mild pressure especially given the increased expectations for more interest rate cuts in Poland," said Dorota Strauch of Raiffeisen in Warsaw. Polish yields are still well above levels in developed economies where central bank have cut rates to near zero.
The Czech central bank also has rates near zero. It has floated the idea of helping the recession-hit economy with crown sales, but a separate Reuters poll showed that the currency's losses have removed that prospect.
Piotr Poplawski of BGZ Bank said a possible interest rate cut by the European Central bank on Thursday could make the crown relatively more attractive.
Hungary's forint has seen wobbles this year due to concerns that new central bank governor Gyorgy Matolcsy would try to help the economy with surprise tools that could weaken the currency.
His comments and a funding for lending programme have been more conservative than expected so far, and Hungary's government bond yields at 4.7-5.3 percent are appetising to investors despite a series of rate cuts and expected more monetary easing.
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