Afghanistan's security forces are braced for an uphill struggle as they take over lead responsibility for operations in the last remaining areas of the country, ahead of the withdrawal of international troops next year. The last stages of the handover, expected this week, are a milestone for the national forces, little more than a decade old but already facing dozens of engagements with the Taliban and other armed groups every day.
The 350,000-strong army and police are present in all 400 districts of the country's 34 provinces, but concerns about their capacity persist. While their numbers are on target, the quality of the force remains debatable. The army is largely a light, infantry-focused force. It suffers from poor retention of recruits, and a literacy rate of around 28 per cent.
It also lacks air support, medical evacuation facilities and vehicles, relying heavily on foreign troops for logistics support and intelligence. Officials say the air force will not be fully functional until 2017. Nato officials have said it is unlikely that Afghanistan would receive all the equipment its Defence Ministry has requested from the international community.
"F-16 fighter jets, tanks, and artillery are not needed" and the Afghan forces do not have the capacity to maintain them, a senior Nato commander said, speaking on condition of anonymity. But the United States will replace Afghanistan's old, inaccurate 87-milimetre mortars with 60-milimetre versions, which are "light, easy to use and maintain, and quite accurate," US General Joseph Dunford, commander of the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force, told reporters at the weekend.
"This kind of equipment is essential for sustainability. With mortars, the Afghan forces are always in the advantage when fighting the Taliban." US and Nato military officials have stressed the importance of maintaining morale and stability, rather than a military victory over the insurgents.
"The intent isn't to defeat the enemy, but to sustain the Afghan forces," the Nato commander said. A top Afghan official said that, while there was "no remarkable progress in the security front" this year, it was important to recognise that the country's forces were coping with increasingly difficult challenges. "Earlier handovers were in areas where government presence was much stronger, said Rangeen Dadfar Spanta, the country's national security advisor.
"In the areas where the current handover is ongoing, it is more difficult," he said. And while they are lacking in equipment, Afghan forces have the tactical advantage of high morale, he said. "We believe it is not the technical skills and equipment that will bring an end to the war. It is the morale and readiness of the people to defend their country," he told dpa.
Another strength of the Afghan forces is information gathering. "Their military intelligence is not very good but their human intelligence, among the populace, is extremely good, which is more important in fighting the insurgency here," the Nato commander said. Morale and intelligence notwithstanding, high violence levels have persisted this year, with the Taliban and other armed groups launching a flurry of attacks, including four in Kabul since May.
Last week, insurgents attacked Kabul international airport, which also houses a Nato air base, and the country's Supreme Court. Civilian casualties were up 24 per cent in the first six months of 2013 from same period last year, according to the United Nations. Many analysts say this year will see violence as high as 2011, the deadliest since the 2001 US invasion.
The Nato commander downplayed the attacks, saying the gain for the insurgents was minimal at best. "If you carefully analyse, they have not been able to make any strategic gains. They might have had a few tactical successes, but that never amounts to anything long-term or strategically important," he said. All urban areas were safe and remained in the complete control of the Afghan forces, he said.
"In the rural countryside, there may be insecurity. However, it does not matter since around 80 per cent of the population live in and around the big cities." Insurgents may control around 40 of the country's 400 districts, but they do not hold the main cities and towns even in those, he said. "In some areas, the insurgency enjoys the support of the local community," another senior Western military officer said. "However, only around 10 per cent or less of the total Afghan population support the insurgency, according to our count."
Nato has 18 months to work on a sustainable Afghan force, before they wrap up their combat mission in 2014. "Winning the campaign this year is important. This summer will be the test of the Afghan troops' capability to sustain combat operations in the future," the first commander said. Officials agree that international support will remain necessary. Without it, "gains are not sustainable," Dunford said. The first Nato commander agreed, saying "the world needs to remain committed so that Afghan forces can build up their confidence in their capacity."
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