BUDAPEST: The zloty and the forint eased on Wednesday as a fall of the rouble and the Turkish lira caused currency selling in emerging markets, while investors expected a dovish message from the Polish central bank's (NBP) rate-setting meeting.
Assets in Central Europe, a region integrated into the European Union, rarely join jitters in other emerging markets, as they are protected by healthy fundamentals and a strong growth outlook.
In currency markets, the main regional proxies are the liquid zloty and forint.
Their reaction to the rouble's and the lira's slide this week, caused by a new round of US sanctions against Russia and monetary policy concerns in Turkey, has been moderate.
The equity indices of the region's main bourses rose by 0.2-0.3 percent.
Hungary's OTP Bank, which generates almost 10 percent of its income from Russia, rose half a percent, after shedding 4 percent relative to Friday's close by Tuesday.
"The selling ... was overdone. Based on the rouble's exchange rate movement, maximum one percent depreciation would have been justified," Erste analysts said in a note.
The Polish and Hungarian currencies, backed by healthy economic growth, eased by 0.1 percent against the euro by 0824 GMT.
The zloty, trading at 4.191, stayed near the 5-week highs it reached on Tuesday. The forint gets additional support from the re-election of Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party on Sunday, which investors believe ensures policy continuity and cuts unceertainty. Orban pledged a curb on the budget deficit and debt on Tuesday.
Inflation readings have been mild in the region this year after a surge in 2016 and 2017.
After a surprise decline in Polish annual inflation to 1.3 percent in March, the NBP is expected to repeat its message that interest rates could stay at record lows for years.
While the same message from Hungary's central bank has won credit in markets, in the case of Poland some analysts still expect a shift towards hawkish rhetoric late this year.
Polish government bonds did not reflect this, with 5- and 10-year papers bid at their lowest yields since autumn 2016. The 10-year yield dipped below the 3 percent psychological level, to 2.97 percent.
The Czech ministry of finance increased the amount of its offer at the bond auction it holds on Wednesday.
"We are eager to see whether the real money demand is still that strong as both yields drop and ASW (asset swap) tightening seems to be somewhat on an overdone side," Komercni Banka said in a note.
Hungary's 10-year government bond yield was steady after dropping about 15 basis points following Orban's landslide election victory.
"Thursday's auctions could be smoothly sold despite the lower yields levels," one trader said.
Comments
Comments are closed.