Warmer and dryer than normal autumn weather has speeded up the winter sowings campaign in Russia and Ukraine, improving the outlook for 2014's wheat harvest in the Black Sea region, an official and analysts said. Russia and Ukraine, major global wheat exporters via the Black Sea, are still planting less area than normal to winter wheat this year because recent favourable weather has not fully offset the earlier delay caused by rain.
The loss in acreage is, however, likely to be more modest than initially expected in Russia and would be insignificant in Ukraine. Ukrainian farms have completed winter wheat sowing for the 2014 harvest, at 6.2 million hectares versus 6.6 million hectares a year earlier.
Originally Ukraine planned to sow 7 million hectares for winter wheat this year, then this figure was cut to 6.6 million hectares. "Our winter crops are in very good condition thanks to perfect weather. The harvest (of winter wheat in 2014) could exceed the previously expected 15 million tonnes," Ukrainian agriculture minister Mykola Prysyazhnyuk told Reuters this week, and called the loss in acreage as 'not critical'.
Previously he expected the harvest of wheat to be down to about 15 million tonnes in 2014 from around 22 million tonnes this year. Winter wheat accounts for more than 90 percent of Ukraine's overall wheat output. Although the bulk of the crop was seeded with some delay, warm weather in November would help plants to develop enough before the cold period, according to an analyst UkrAgroConsult.
Warm weather dominated most Ukrainian regions during last three to four weeks and forecasters expect at least another 10 days of favourable weather across most regions. WINTER WHEAT IN RUSSIA Official data in Russia provides a less clear picture, as the country's Agriculture ministry only discloses figures for sowing of all grains.
Winter grains for the 2014 crop were sown on 14.2 million hectares, or 87.3 percent of the planned area as of November 6, compared with 15.6 million hectares a year earlier, according to the latest ministry data. The country has sown larger areas with winter grains than the ministry estimated. Its most recent forecast stood at 14 million hectares compared to 16.4 million hectares originally planned and down from a total 16.1 million hectares last year.
"Winter wheat sowing is almost completed," Andrey Sizov, the head of SovEcon agricultural analysts, said. Wheat accounts for about 90 percent of total area sown for all winter grains, he added. Warm weather and absence of morning fog on the main part of the area have helped rapid sowing in the country's top bread basket Krasnodar region, according to Kuban Agro, a farming business in the region.
The country's loss in acreage sown for winter wheat is not critical for the next year's crop, which would now depend on condition of plantings, according to Sizov. "Weather is abnormally warm in central Russia now and if it shifts to cold December with a lack of snow, situation would be very difficult in this case, because crops would be relatively weak after late sowing," he said.
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