Australia's Prime Minister Tony Abbott faces a tough diplomatic choice over Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's demand for an apology over alleged spying. Saying sorry could head off a damaging diplomatic spat, but owning up to tracking the Indonesian leader's phone in 2009 would break Canberra's convention of never talking about intelligence gathering.
Holding his line that "all governments gather information" would protect Canberra's intelligence integrity, but seemed certain to create a rift between Australia and its nearest South-East Asian neighbour.
Tim Lindsey, head of Asian law at Melbourne University, urged Abbott to apologise.
"The way out is clear," Lindsey said. "The prime minister needs to come up with a form of words acceptable to the Indonesian president that can be presented as a personal apology."
Would that it were that simple, said Alexander Downer, top diplomat for the 11 years before his conservatives lost office to the previous Labour administration in 2007.
Show contrition once, and others will demand similar treatment for every time espionage claims come up, which they almost certainly will, he said.
The claims of phone tracking under the former Labour government stem from documents released by former US intelligence contractor Edward Snowden, who was given asylum for a year in Russia.
Adrian Vickers, Asian Studies director at Sydney University, warned that Abbott needed an updated view of burgeoning Indonesia and its politics to salvage the relationship.
Abbott labours under a "very out-dated, if not patronising, view of our neighbour," he said.
"Australia's going to have to do a lot of work to come back from this," Vickers said. "Our prime minister understands the importance of Indonesia on a general level but not how to talk to Indonesia's political leadership."
This view was shared by Greta Nabbs-Keller, a former Australian intelligence analyst now working on a doctorate on Indonesia's foreign policy.
In an article for Sydney's Lowy Institute, she said the spying claims play into perceptions in Jakarta that Australians still see Indonesia as a poor country with rotten politics and an uncertain future that is more threat than opportunity.
"There is little doubt that the leaks have been deeply damaging to Indonesia-Australia relations, with Indonesian leaders seeing them as evidence that Australian conceptions of their country remain incongruent with Indonesia's contemporary realities as the world's third-largest democracy, emerging economic powerhouse and responsible international actor."
For Lindsey, the key issue is not wiretapping but the perception in Jakarta that the president has been made to look a chump.
"It's about the personal humiliation felt by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono," he said.
Throughout the scandal, Abbott has stressed that Yudhoyono "is a very good friend of Australia," and the sentiment seems sincere. He has also demonstrated his recognition of Indonesia's importance by making Jakarta his first overseas stop and declaring that his new government's foreign policy would be "more Jakarta than Geneva."
The current impasse is a test of his commitment to the relationship, and could impact Australia's wider diplomatic standing in the region.
"Indonesia is aware of itself as a rising power," Lindsey said. "We'll have great difficulties in finding a place in East Asia if Indonesia is not by our side."
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