The dollar edged higher against the euro and yen on Wednesday, shrugging off softer-than-expected US private-sector payrolls and services sector reports affected by severe winter conditions. Recent weakness in US economic data is not expected to deter the Federal Reserve from gradually reducing its asset purchase, a scenario that is positive for the dollar.
US private employers added 139,000 jobs in February, lower than market expectations, while services sector growth hit a four-year low of 51.6. And there is a growing view that given the weaker-than forecast ADP National Employment report, Friday's US non-farm payrolls number could likewise disappoint. Economists polled by Reuters expect US job gains of 150,000 last month.
Still many expect the dollar to hold up well. "The winter weather is going to strike again and provide another disappointing payrolls number but we still think the dollar could strengthen," said Andrew Dilz, currency trader at Tempus Consulting in Washington. "If non-farm payrolls come out weaker as we expect, I don't think it's going to have a huge effect on the Federal Reserve, as nothing seems to be putting them off track in terms of tapering." Investors were also focused on the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting on Thursday, which analysts expect will result in some form of policy easing to ward off deflationary risks in the euro zone. That expectation has led to weakness in the euro against the dollar.
The dollar's gains were also helped by losses in the yen, which fell for a second straight day as concerns over a Russia-Ukraine stand-off eased. Markets, however, are keeping an eye on the region after Russia test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile from a base not far from eastern Ukraine to a range in Kazakhstan. In late trading, the euro was down 0.1 percent versus the dollar at $1.3728, pulling back from Friday's two-month high of $1.3824.
Despite better-than-expected retail sales data for January and a survey that showed euro zone private-sector business growing at its fastest pace in more than 2-1/2 months in February, investors sold the euro on the risk that the ECB could loosen policy on Thursday. Inflation is running well below the ECB's target of just under 2 percent, and the central bank is under pressure to pull it out of a "danger zone" that threatens to stall the region's fragile recovery.
Indeed, overnight euro/dollar implied volatility, a gauge of how sharp currency swings will be, jumped to 11.50 percent from around 5 percent at the start of the week. The euro was flat against the yen at 140.42 yen after gaining 0.8 percent on Tuesday, while the dollar rose 0.1 percent at 102.29 yen after posting its biggest one-day gain since mid-January a day earlier. The greenback was also slightly up against the Swiss franc at 0.8870 franc.
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