Business confidence wanes

Businesses do not appear too chuffed about the prospects – as the confidence has taken a dip. In the post-dharna scenario, the confidence is lowest only second to the Panama verdict days. And that goes on to suggest, uncertain political conditions continue to be the driver of business confidence. The Wave 16 of OICCI Business Confidence Index Survey puts the overall business confidence down to 14 percent positive, from 21 percent in November 2017 and the high of 36 percent in April 2016.

Then came Panama, and the JITs and the verdict, and the NAB proceedings. And the overall business confidence seems to be moving in tandem with the major political happenings. Mind you, all this while, Pakistan has added at least 10.000 additional megawatts of electricity and achieved zero industrial load shedding. But, apparently that is not the confidence businesses were looking for, despite citing energy crises as the key reasons for concerns in various previous waves.

Those who are positive have cited improved security situation as the most important reason for both the past and next six months. Those with an overall negative score have cited the uncertain political condition as the single most important reason for the pessimism. This seems understandable too, as elections approach. Whether the negativity is about a ‘fear’ of change or doubts over elections is not known. But the reading is interesting as the reasons cited for negative scores included energy crisis and bad security situation in the top-three. These are two areas where the outgoing government prides itself on. It appears, some businesses do not think others are capable of maintaining that performance.

Interestingly, inflation is least of the concerns for the next six months, and was second most important one for the past six months. Baffling as it is – inflation is all set to take a ride north in the next six months, for reasons oft cited in these columns.

In terms of future business outlook, hundreds of thousands entering the job market, have a reason to worry. Only 2 percent have indicated to create new jobs in the next six months, down from 9 percent in the previous wave – and the lowest number in the entire tenure of this government. This is despite, much improved confidence in new investment, the index for which now stands at a negative 7 percent – much improved from negative 39 percent in April 2017.

Despite dismal FDI performance, two-thirds still expect FDI to be the main source of investment. The survey findings appear contradictory at some places, as majority sees negative impact on CPEC and positive impact on energy projects – post elections. This is despite, energy sector being labeled as one of the chief reasons for pessimism. Also, how a negatively impacted CPEC could yield a positive impact on energy – remains a mystery.