Dummy play can be easy if one's card reading ability can place the key cards with more aplomb for the simple reason that not all of us work hard enough to gather the necessary inferences visible to make what is called in Bridge an "Educated Guess" which is a little short of complete certainty. Players often miss obvious clues available at the table from the bidding and opening lead followed by the defence offered. The expert pauses to take stock of the situation at hand and notes every minute detail that can help him determine the opponent's distribution and key cards.
Let us learn by example. North south are in 4S on the following hand after east opens 1NT (15-17 H.C.P) at the first seat.
The bidding: The opening lead by west is the 10C, which is allowed to win. West continues with 4C, low again from dummy which fetches the jack from east that declarer ruff's in hand. As south take it from there. How would you play the hand to make a certainty of your 4S contract bid against east's opening NT bid?
As you view the dummy, pausing at trick one by habit, you can gauge 2 top trump losers besides 1 club already given which means that you need to find the location of the QH which is vital for the success of your contract.
Naturally you start with AD to get your 2 ruffs in dummy not touching trumps lest the opponents who hold the top honours play the third trump to deprive you of a diamond ruff. Once you ruff the first diamond, you come back with a CK ruff drawing CA from east to ruff the other diamond loser. You note that no diamond honour has appeared either from east or west. It is now time to draw trumps. East takes KS and follows with ace (west following with 4S and a low club discard) east exits with QC which you ruff, west following clubs.
The critical point of play has now been reached. The all important location of the heart queen is to be deciphered with a near like certainty. Can you guess with 90% probability? If not, think about possible distribution opponents can hold as shown so far by their play and defence.
Let us begin by counting east's points. So far he has shown up with 14 out of the possible 17HCP's he can hold for his NT opening bid in the shape of CA, CQ and CJ besides AK of spades. For his remaining 2 or possibly 3 HCP's he can either hold diamond king or either the heart queen or diamond queen, ie only I out for the 3 card holdings. So west with 2 of these 3 cards has better odds of 2:1 to hold the heart queen.
If you still have a little doubt, what about the inference taken from the opening lead, which was a club. Wondering as to what could club lead have to do with location of the heart queen? Well, here lies the fascination of Bridge - for every move of the opponent connotes either a negative or positive inference.
It is time now to reconstruct west's hand. He has shown 5 clubs to the 10, 9 with 1 spade. Of his remaining 7 red cards his diamond holding cannot have both honours for then he would surely have led KD from KQ. So if one of the remaining diamond honours - either the K or Q is given to east, it is pretty obvious by simple logical deduction that west must hold the heart queen. In fact west held.
The key to the above hand for declarer play was the assumption of cards on the inference available which gave him and can give you the confidence to take the right way finesse in heart to locate the heart queen giving you an edge over your opponents who will be more careful next time to hold their cards more close to their chest for fear that you may peek into them, the way you take finesses with such certainty. This by itself would be the best compliment you deserve.
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North South
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9762 QJ10853
AJ1063 K42
8 AJ3
K76 5
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E S W N
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1NT 2S P 4S
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All passed
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4
Q9642
109843
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