Brazil coffee farmers double their forward sales

Brazilian farmers have doubled their forward sales for this year's arabica coffee crop after a drought-led rally in prices, leaving leeway for further price rises, a poll of ten traders and roasters showed. Farmers in the world's top coffee grower have forward sold around 39 percent of the 2014/15 arabica crop, around twice what is typically sold by this time of year, according to the poll's median forecast.
Unusually, they are also estimated to have sold 8 percent of the 2015/16 crop. "At the moment I would say we're 35 to 40 percent sold when normally it would be 15 to 20 percent and on 2015/16 we're at 5 to 10 percent when normally that would be zero," said one poll respondent.
Drought hit the Brazilian coffee crop in January and February, sending arabica coffee prices soaring, peaking at a more than two-year high of $2.19 per lb in April. Traders have said it will be difficult to know the extent of the damage to the 2014/15 crop until July, when the harvest is further progressed, but many expect losses to be between 10 and 15 percent. It remains unclear what impact the weather could have on 2015/16 output.
Forecasts for the 2014/15 crop vary widely, ranging from below 40 million 60-kg bags, to around 56 million bags. "Now I imagine Brazilian farmers are going to be out of the market. They are quite well covered, now they need to wait a bit and see the harvest and then start to do more later on, (from) July," said a trader.
The advanced level of forward sales is expected to help strengthen farmers' financial position and could lead to further upside in prices. "The fact that they (farmers) have sold 2015/16 is bullish because it allows the producer to withhold coffee having already sold some at a very good price. He is in a stronger position now not to sell," said an international roaster. "Producers have gotten a lot of money for their coffee, the price level is generally very high, they are in quite a strong position compared to roasters." "Roasters have to buy. Do producers have to sell? Increasingly not."