Favourable weather has raised expectations of a larger European Union maize (corn) crop this summer, which would reduce EU dependence on imports of the key animal feed at a time of political crisis in major maize supplier Ukraine. A mixture of rain and sunshine in much of Europe in May has enabled farmers to complete their planned maize sowings and plants are developing well, analysts said.
The EU's 2014 maize harvest is likely to rise to 66.4 million tonnes from 64.3 million tonnes last year, said Claus Keller, grains specialist with German commodity analysts F.O. Licht. "Overall I think the picture is positive at this point of the season for the maize crop, with generally good weather in most maize regions, but of course much can happen before the harvest," Keller said. "If the EU wheat crop also turns out as positive as expected, the EU is likely to have a smaller maize import requirement in the coming season."
"This could be reassuring during a period of great political uncertainly in Ukraine, a major maize supplier." In top maize producer France, crops got a good start to the season with swift sowing followed by rain, helping crops emerge. Sowing of grain maize was already virtually finished a week ago, with 98 percent of the area expected for this year's harvest sown by May 19, said farm office FranceAgriMer.
"Sowing took place in good time and crop emergence was also favourable," said Paul Gaffet of French crop consultancy ODA. "There should in principle be some good yield potential. We should not have the kind of poor crop establishment we saw last year." Analysts are expecting a rise in French production from last year's crop of around 14.8 million tonnes, as better yields would outweigh a fall in area. Strategie Grains forecasts a 2014 crop of 15.7 million tonnes and ODA of 15.1 million tonnes. Among large eastern EU maize producers, the outlook is also positive.
Big exporter Hungary is forecast by FO Licht to harvest 7.6 million tonnes, against 6.7 million tonnes last year. Romania is expected to reap 9.5 million tonnes, close to its exceptionally large crop of 10.6 million tonnes last year, FO Licht said. Poland may harvest 3.5 million tonnes, only slightly down from the very large harvest of 4 million tonnes last year when bad weather disrupted swings of other spring grains, said Wojtek Sabaranski of analysts Sparks Polska.
Polish maize is also developing well, benefiting from hot weather last week following heavy rainfall a week before, Sabaranski said. Germany's crop is likely to rise to 5.1 million tonnes from 4.7 million with plants developing well, the German farm co-operatives association said. Italy is forecast to harvest 7.8 million tonnes against 7.6 million tonnes last year, Keller said.
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