Afghan election in peril

With presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah on boycott of vote counting Afghanistan seems to be in for protracted political crisis adding to feared vacuum of power following the exit by year's end of US-led coalition forces from the country. It is hard for Abdullah - and many independent observers of the Afghan electoral exercise - to believe that in the runoff he would run far behind his rival contestant Ashraf Ghani who had secured 14 percent less votes than him in the first round. The runoff polling was held on last Saturday and the preliminary counting by Wednesday by the Independent Election Commission (IEC) of Afghanistan of votes from some areas showed Ghani leading by about one million votes. Abdullah has alleged electoral fraud on the part of the IEC in connivance of his rival and that President Karzai was also 'unfortunately not impartial'. He asked the commission to stop counting immediately, warning 'if does not it will not have any legitimacy'. The commission, however, is determined to go ahead with counting, promising to stick by schedule to announce preliminary results by July 2 and final by July 22.
Abdullah had boycotted the runoff in 2009 presidential election also alleging electoral fraud though he was behind his rival Hamid Karzai, and win the second term only to join his cabinet later on. Will he go for any such bargain with Ashraf Ghani also it appears to be unlikely given the massive lead he had in the first round. Then there are telltale evidentiary instances which tend to confirm his stand that the runoff polling was extensively rigged by the concerned quarters. While the turnout at the runoff polling by independent accounts was less than first round, and unlike before the voting time was also not extended the commission claimed heavy turnout, almost 7 million as against earlier 6.6 million in the first round. Abdullah as runoff candidate had now the additional support of the third vote-getter of the first round, Zalami Rassoul, who had secured nearly 13 percent of votes cast the most of them being Pushtun. He had last week demanded removal of IEC head Ziaul Haq Amarkhani alleging he had tried to take unused ballots from the office a day ahead of the election day. Amarkhani who was intercepted by police, says he was taking these ballots fearing some of the polling stations may run short and he would send these as quickly as possible. Then there was this mind-boggling IEC announcement of significantly higher turnout in the runoff within two hours of end of polling. How that could be said given there were 6,184 polling stations spread far and wide and some located in violence-ridden areas. That the woman voters in Pashtun areas had turned up in big numbers, unlike in the first round, that too looks implausible. There were also widespread complaints of shortages of ballot papers at polling stations, as if there somewhere else the boxes had been over-stuffed.
Abdullah is adamant on counting under the supervision of independent observers, but it's not acceptable to the election commission and the UN spokesman to be unimpressed. Should Abdullah persevere in his stand and Kabul government and others in the loop not of much help in resolving the imbroglio a huge crisis is on hand in Afghanistan. Heavy turnout at the first round had ignited hopes that at long last international efforts to set the country on a democratic path had succeeded. And when the first round failed to throw up a clear winner the dream survived that the runoff would give Afghans their first genuinely-elected head of state. Who would be that final winner, Abdullah or Ghani, it was of secondary importance to the world at large, including its neighbours. Of paramount importance was the quality of the electoral exercise and through this election of Afghans' first genuinely representative leader. But that dream seems to be going awry. With Abdullah opting to question fairness and transparency of runoff election Ashraf Ghani's would be a pyrrhic victory, lacking support of millions of Afghans. It is a dilemma that should not only be of serious concern to Kabul rulers but all who wish and work for a peaceful transition following withdrawal of foreign troops. And the only way to that now is that the international community should weigh in with the Afghan election authorities to bring Abdullah back into the loop by clearing its position. With Abdullah staying put in denial mode the Afghan presidential office would certainly lack the much wanted credibility the post-2014 Afghanistan shall desperately need as an independent international player.