China's corn consumption in the year ending September is likely to grow 2 percent from the previous year, according to an official think-tank, revised down from an earlier estimate due to lower-than-expected growth in animal feed demand. China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) has reduced its forecast for the country's corn consumption for 2013/14 by 2 million tonnes to 186.98 million tonnes. The slower rise in demand forecast by the think-tank is in line with earlier predictions by industry analysts.
The think-tank also estimated lower corn imports than previously forecast due to a glut of local supplies. Beijing has been releasing state corn stocks and has rejected some corn imports from the United States since late last year. Fang Yan, a department director with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said on Thursday that China's corn stocks were 150 million tonnes, though it was unclear if the number includes commercial stocks. Beijing has stockpiled more than 90 million tonnes of corn for state reserves over the past two years.
"Domestic animal feed production has been hit by weak meat demand, outbreaks of bird flu and losses from pig breeding," said the centre. Falling pork prices have caused losses for farmers, who have been slaughtering breeding sows. The number of breeding sows has fallen over the past 16 months and were down 7.5 percent on the year in May, said the centre, citing agriculture ministry data. The centre also cut corn import estimates for 2013/14 to 4 million tonnes, down from earlier projection of 5.5 million tonnes, but still higher than 2.7 million tonnes in the previous year. Imports may fall to 3.5 million tonnes in 2014/15.
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