Population and poverty

Population, poverty and economic development are closely inter-linked and inter-related. Rapid population growth tends to reduce per capita income and human well-being which in turn leads to increased level of poverty. Population growth higher than the country's GDP, may impair the economy, deteriorate the country's social relations and decrease the quality of life and living standards of the people. Population growth is thus directly proportional to poverty and inversely to economic progress and prosperity. There may be some exceptions, but this is apparently the general rule applicable to almost all countries of the world, Pakistan being no exception.
Though economic and political system is also central to a country's economic development, population growth is the key determinant. As per a report by the UN Population Fund (UNPFA), larger families and fast growing populations obstruct development and perpetuate poverty by slowing growth and diverting consumption away from the poor. The countries with high population growth rates have economic growth rates lower than average, and countries with low population growth rates have economic growth rates higher than average.
According to expert reports, predictions and projections based on trends and statistics, global population is expected to increase from about 7 billion today to over 9 billion by 2050, and the population of the 48 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) will more than double to reach 1.7 billion. Of the projected 9 billion, about half of the world's population will reside in China, the USA, India, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Uganda, the Congo, Bangladesh, and, of course, Pakistan.
Developing countries of the world, by their experience, have learnt that rapid population growth is a hurdle in the way of their economic development. Fast population growth surpasses the production of goods and supply of the amenities required to improve the standards of living of the people and thus perpetuates poverty and deprivation. This realisation makes population control an integral part of national development plans around the world, especially in developing and the under-developed countries.
At a World Summit held in 2005 to consider ways and means to eradicate poverty and spur economic growth, the international community noted that the world faced economic slowdown and a food security crisis because of population growth, and reaffirmed its commitment "to cut in half the number of people living in extreme poverty by 2015 and achieve the eighth Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), a series of time-bound and quantified targets to attack the root causes of poverty in a multi-dimensional way".
For those seeking to explore the relationship between economic development, poverty elimination and population growth, Pakistan makes a fascinating case study.
The Muslims struggle for freedom from the clutches of the colonial rule and creation of Pakistan represented more than an escape from the impending tyranny of the Hindus following the departure of the British overlords; it aimed at ensuring assertion of popular sovereignty and an embodiment of their hopes and aspirations for a better life marked by political liberty, economic opportunities and social equality.
A simple, concise and straightforward definition of economic development is referred to as a rise in the Gross National Product (GNP) and the per capita income of a country which when attained makes you better off than you were before; that brings an era of plenty, prosperity, power, prestige, affluence, a higher standard of living, a better quality of life, and probably even human happiness.
From the above and several other definitions, it may be deduced that economic development involves the elimination of poverty, backwardness, underdevelopment, weakness, vulnerability, on the one hand, and the achievement of science, technology, growth, along with the enhancement of the productive powers of society and the abilities and capabilities of the people, on the other hand, attainment whereof, however, is extremely difficult for any human society. Had it not been so, majority of the countries of the world would have been developed today rather than being branded as developing or under-developed.
When Pakistan emerged on the world map as an independent, sovereign nation, it was 'economically among the poorest countries of the world, whose people had nothing to share save their poverty, except for a small fringe of the population of prosperous parasites living off the lands, whose real producers were the dispossessed peasants, constituting the mass of the population. Its reconstruction and reform was, therefore, both an opportunity and a challenge to the custodians of the new state.'
Rapid population growth has been a serious problem in Pakistan and one of the main impediments in the way of efforts for achieving the overall national development goals and sustained socio-economic growth. In 1947, Pakistan's population was 31 million and the growth rate was 4.5 percent per annum. Since then, the population of Pakistan has increased significantly, particularly because more and more people felt comfortable moving their families and businesses to the area.
Consequently, both in theory and practice, capitalism became the chosen path of economic development in Pakistan (as in many other parts of the world) and the man who followed this course in real earnest was Field Marshall Ayub Khan who governed the country from 1958 to 1969 and gave the Pakistani capitalists, industrialists and financiers the fullest freedom and maximum incentives to set up industries and produce wherever and whatever their free enterprise, business judgement, and profit motive dictated. All that promoted industry, increased the GNP and the per capita income, and thus improved the rate of growth, was allowed.
Reportedly, majority of the common people in Pakistan do not have resources enough to meet their basic necessities of life. About two-third of the population lives on less than $2 per day while one-third of the population lives below the poverty line. The population of Pakistan grew, on average, at a rate of 3 percent per year from 1951 until the middle of 1980's decade. From then on until the year 2000, the growth of the population slowed down to about 2.6 percent per year: and from 2000 to 2012, to about 2 percent per year.
According to the World Bank Report- 2012, Pakistan's population, last collected in 2011, was reportedly around 176,745,364. Earlier in 2001, the country's estimated population was around 142.5 million and it ranked as the 7th most populated country in the entire world. Thus in over 10 years' time, Pakistan's estimated population grew by about 34 million people. Today, the country's population is estimated to be approximately 187,561,850 representing 2.56 percent of the world population and making it the sixth most populous country of the world.
With the growth rate of 2% per year, Pakistan's population is estimated to eventually double in the next 36 years. Judging from how the population has grown since 1947, this doubled population figure does not seem to be far off and if it is allowed to go unchecked, there will not be enough natural resources, jobs, health or educational facilities for so many people - quite in contrast to the very ideals that were designed to be translated into reality in the new environment comprising areas (now constituting Pakistan) that had been intentionally kept backward under the dictates of imperial strategy. It is important and imperative, therefore, that the country's population is stabilised so that the burden on existing infrastructure is reduced.
Unless and until there is a well-co-ordinated combination of measures that reduce fertility rate; and the population plans are fully implemented and sustained, population growth will continue to be a major hurdle for economic development of the country. An urgent step in this direction would be to bring population to the centre stage of development.
Control over rapid population growth to narrow and ultimately eliminate the gap between population and economic resources calls for an enhancement of education, health, housing facilities and the resolve to maintain population control measures. Because smaller families share income among fewer people, average per capita income increases. This will help pull the nations out of the maelstrom of high population growth, which has been having a negative impact and slowing down the pace of social and economic development. Enabling people to have fewer children contributes to upward mobility and helps to stimulate development.
Rapid population growth is a serious problem adversely affecting Pakistan's infrastructure and resources. For overcoming the issue and getting rid of poverty, ignorance and disease, the vast reservoirs of its natural resources had to be developed to make Pakistan a modern progressive state. Sadly, however, this was not done; a large number of the population is still condemned to live even without the basic amenities of life like housing, food, water, electricity and conservancy services even in a city like Karachi considered as the country's most developed metropolis.
Another serious problem is the high level of illiteracy especially in rural areas where the families tend to add to the population growth in fulfilment of their desire to have sons for labour work and old age security. There is therefore need to fight illiteracy and create awareness among the people about the seriousness of the problem of population growth. Organized interventions can do something to slow population growth, alleviate poverty, pave the way for economic development and enable people to meet their basic necessities of life and enjoy better living standards and quality life- socially, politically and economically. The media, the intellectuals and the intelligentsia can play important role in this regard.
(The author is Ex-Director, Institute of Bankers Pakistan, Ex-Advisor, Training & Media, Sindh Bank, and Editor, Value Chain, a monthly business magazine)