The US Department of Agriculture on Friday signalled abundant US and world grain and soyabean supplies in the coming year, a trend anticipated in futures markets for weeks by rapidly falling prices. Projected 2014/15 US corn carryout, at 1.801 billion bushels, was above the analysts' average forecast, and at almost 13.9 billion bushels, the crop is not much below the 2003 record high of 13.925 billion bushels.
Old-crop US corn feed usage was lowered, but corn used to produce ethanol was projected 25 million bushels higher based on the blistering pace of production to date. US soyabean ending stocks for 2014/15 were pegged at 415 million bushels, close to trade expectations. If realised, that would be the highest since 2006/07. USDA will not survey the corn and soyabean crops until August, but suggested huge production could be at hand - if weather co-operates for several more weeks.
"Favourable early July crop conditions and weather support an outlook for record yields across most of the Corn Belt, however, for much of the crop, the critical pollination period will be during middle and late July," USDA said. At the start of this week some 75 percent of corn was rated in good to excellent condition, and development was moving ahead at a normal pace. For soyabeans, 72 percent were in good or excellent condition this week.
For now, most of the Corn Belt has ample moisture to support crop development. Ahead of harvest, though, soyabean supplies are razor-thin in many parts of the country, and record high imports have helped to plug the supply gap. USDA lowered its forecast for US winter wheat production to 1.367 billion bushels, below trade expectations, based on lower harvested yields.
The projected yield for Kansas, the dominant hard red winter wheat-producing state, fell by 1 bushel per acre from June. "The HRW crop was damaged by drought and April freezes in the southern and central Plains," said USDA. USDA now sees the total US wheat crop at 1.992 billion bushels, down 6 percent on the year but up 50 million bushels on the month, bolstered by a big spring wheat crop.
Projected season-average prices for wheat, corn and soyabeans were all lowered as USDA caught up with the sharp price drops seen in markets recently. World soyabean ending stocks will jump to 85.3 million tonnes in 2014/15 from 67.2 million in the current season. Projected imports by China were raised by 1 million tonnes, to 73 million, accounting for two-thirds of global demand. World corn and coarse grain ending stocks for 2013/14 and 2014/15 each hiked substantially.
China's corn crop was lifted by 2 million tonnes to 222 million, keeping its imports for the 2014/15 season at a slim 3 million tonnes. Australia's wheat crop for 2014/15 was raised by 500,000 tonnes to 26.0 million, based on rising acreage forecasts. New-crop wheat consumption was also raised for the European Union and Ukraine and Serbia. Imports were lowered for Egypt and Mexico but raised for Sudan, Indonesia and Nigeria.
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