US soyabean futures fell on Tuesday as expectations for a bumper US harvest rose on overnight rains across a broad stretch of the Midwest and a government report showing the crop in better shape than expected, traders said. The storms, which eased lingering concerns about dry weather during the past few weeks reducing harvest yields, also weighed on corn futures.
Wheat futures rose for the fifth day in a row on bargain buying and improving export demand. Prices for the front-month contract hit their highest since July 18. "Good rains were seen overnight across a large portion of the Midwest, which did serve to relive some of the weather worries that were lending support to the market," Sterling Smith, futures specialist at Citi, said in a note to clients.
Chicago Board of Trade soyabeans for August delivery fell 9-3/4 cents to $12.22-3/4 a bushel. The new-crop November contract, which tracks the crop that will be harvested in the coming weeks, posted the biggest decline, shedding 1.3 percent, or 13-3/4 cents, to $10.65-3/4.
The US Agriculture Department said on Monday afternoon that the soyabean crop was rated 71 percent good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago and 1 percentage point above the average of analysts' forecasts. INTL FCStone projected the US 2014 soyabean harvest at 3.865 billion bushels, with an average yield of 46.0 bushels per acre, and Farm Futures Magazine estimated the crop at 3.857 billion bushels, with an average yield of 46.07 bushels per acre. Both estimates are above USDA's current forecasts.
Informa Economics' soyabean forecast fell below the USDA's but the closely watched firm's outlook for 3.7 billion bushels would still be a record crop if realised. For corn, all three firms issued forecasts above the USDA's outlook, with INTL FCStone estimating US production at 14.455 billion bushels, with an average yield of 172.4 bushels per acre and Farm Futures pegging the crop at 14.331 billion bushels, with an average yield of 171.06 bushels an acre. Informa predicted a 13.988 billion bushel crop, based on an average yield of 168 bushels per acre.
CBOT September corn futures were 2-1/2 cents lower at $3.56-1/4 a bushel. Prices for the front-month contract found support near the four-year lows hit earlier this week. CBOT soft red winter wheat for September delivery rose 8-1/2 cents to close at $5.52-1/2 a bushel. Prices have risen 6.4 percent during the five-day rally, the longest for the front-month contract since an equal stretch that ended on February 5.
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