The Millennial March

The kids are on their way. The latest Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) estimated that nearly 40 percent of the country's population is below 15 years of age. That means there are roughly about 80 million under-fifteens out there! If they were a country, these kids - who were born after the turn of the millennium (2000), hence the crude and arguable usage of the term 'millennial' here - would be the 16th most populous country in the world, equivalent of the European powerhouse Germany. Is Pakistan prepared, or even preparing, for this wave that is about to hit the shores?
The response from state, society and market will determine whether this demographic storm will lead to a dividend or a disaster. The glut of youth has been in the making for some time. It will intensify over the coming years, justifiably demanding more economic opportunities and social mobility. So what has been the response so far?
The "next generation" refrain is usually accompanied with the announcements of mega infrastructure development projects. The policymakers' argument is that the gradual build-up of productive and social infrastructure will lead to greater opportunities over the coming years. But there are multiple issues with this response that is based on haphazard spending.
Firstly, whatever projects have been ushered in transportation, energy and social sectors are inherently directed at meeting the current shortfalls. Per se, those federal and provincial development projects do not - and cannot, due to resource constraints - take into account the needs of the future. Therefore, terming these projects futuristic would be the same as federal government's yearly announcement of spending trillions of rupees on "pro-poor" projects when it is anything but. Much more - in both scale and scope - would be required to prepare for future needs.
Secondly, even the current levels of development spending are almost entirely financed through borrowings, thus ignoring the concept of intergenerational equity. A country cannot avoid indebtedness, but it must be wary of debt bondage. A Pakistani child born today is over Rs 97,000 in debt, nearly 13.5 times the debt burden of a child born in 1990 (debt burden in dollars has increased 3.2 times during this period). Unless the bourgeois start paying their fair share of taxes and political system straightens out its spending priorities, average debt burden will continue to increase.
The third problem, which is probably the most critical, is the absence of a needs-assessment exercise. Population census, which could at least give some idea of the size and whereabouts of the relevant age cohort, remains in limbo. How can one plan something of value or consequence when there are no numbers? It almost seems as if politicians allocate arbitrary sums for these schemes just for mileage. More research can identify the attributes of this age group which could help in policymaking.
While discussing the prospects for future youth, one cannot ignore the situation of the existing youth. About one million Pakistani youths - or roughly 3 percent in the 20-29 age group - are enrolled in universities. But the outlook for job-seekers remains glum. In 2011, the Planning Commission had estimated that the economy needs sustained growth of 7 percent and creation of three million new jobs per annum to absorb the fresh labour influx.
But in recent years, the private sector job-creation has presumably taken the hit in tandem with low GDP growth. Meanwhile, the once highly-regarded notion of public sector employment is becoming increasingly out-of-fashion. And those who try to start small businesses are often confronted with big problems like access to finance.
Yes, the "youth schemes" at the federal and provincial tiers indicate some seriousness about the livelihoods crisis. But these schemes seem more political than substantive. When all one sees in youth is a vote bank - the 15-35 years age bracket constitutes 35 percent of the population, as per PDHS - then chances are that youth will be pulled apart in different directions for partisan gains. What then results is a mad dash for political schemes, which are understandably high on visibility over impact, but low on broad based delivery.
A new approach
It's not working for the current young lot. Chances are that it will not work for their successors either. The current youth has already suffered. But there is no reason why the newbies must also go through the same. Clearly, a change in approach is in order to focus on what is coming.
The issues Pakistan is facing are many, but the resource purse is inadequate and imagination wanting, to tackle them all. So, rather than trying to fix everything for everyone, perhaps a better approach would be to refocus on the future generation. For instance, there are better odds of schooling a five-year old than forcing a 30- or 40-year old into vocational training. That doesn't mean dump the schemes and programmes for rest of the population, but rather prioritise.
For a country with millions of out-of-school kids, both the reforms and spending for education must be up to the challenge. A new beginning must start with education; everything else is a false dawn. Provinces are encouragingly making more investment in education, but experts maintain that it will take a lot more money and constant policy tinkering to remain on the right track and fulfil the constitution's demands.
The promise or dread of the future affects everyone, regardless of income group, gender or geography. Making the right investments in future generation really provides the opportunity of laying the foundation for an equitable and participatory society. While the responsibility of political leaders in this context is clear, the civil society, academia and the private sector must also get involved to find the ways and means for a better future.
(The writer is a senior analyst at BR Research.Follow him @HammadHHaider)