US Soyabean stocks ended the 2013/14 marketing year much smaller than expected despite an upward revision to the prior year's crop, while corn stocks were larger than forecast, government data showed on Tuesday. The US Agriculture Department's wheat crop estimate was in line with traders' expectations, while wheat stocks as of September 1 were 2 percent larger than projected. In Chicago, corn futures and wheat futures slumped after higher-than-expected stocks while soyabeans trimmed losses.
"There's definitely a bearish slant to (the report). The ending stocks were on the higher end of the range for corn. The wheat stocks number indicates lower-than-expected usage," said Shawn McCambridge, analyst at Jefferies Bache Soybean stocks ahead of harvest were a razor-thin 92 million bushels, versus the trade guess of 126 million. Indicated usage during June-August was 313 million bushels, up 6 percent on the year.
Still, the United States has just started to harvest a bin-busting 2014 Soyabean crop of almost 4 billion bushels, dampening the impact of Tuesday's bullish figure. USDA raised its estimate of the 2013 Soyabean crop to 3.358 billion bushels, up 69.2 million bushels. The change was based on analysis of data from several sources, USDA said. Analysts had forecast the crop at 3.362 billion bushels.
The 2013 Soyabean yield of 44 bushels per acre was up 0.7 bpa from the previous estimate, USDA said. Quarterly corn stocks have a history of shocking markets but Tuesday's figure, just 0.4 percent above expectations at 1.236 billion bushels, was not a major surprise. Even so, stocks were up 50 percent on the year. This, along with the record large 2014 harvest now underway, underlines large US corn supplies, a turnaround after several years of short supplies. CBOT corn futures have made a series of contract lows recently.
Quarterly stocks compare with USDA's estimates made three weeks ago of 1.181 billion bushels for corn and 130 million bushels of soyabeans. In a companion report, USDA said this year's wheat crop totalled 2.035 billion bushels, up 5 million bushels from its previous estimate and just below the analysts' average guess. US oat production, at 70.5 million bushels, was up 9 percent from a year ago but still the fourth lowest on record, USDA said.
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