Escalating cease-fire violations

Exchange of fire across the Line of Control as well as the Working Boundary has risen to a worrisome level during the recent days. Four civilians, two of them children, were killed and three others injured on the Eid day by Indian Border Security Force's fire in a village near the Working Boundary. According to ISPR, India also opened fired in five other sectors. Fortunately, no casualty was reported from those areas, but 'unprovoked' Indian firing in Charwa sector on Monday destroyed at least ten houses. As many as 20,000 panicked people are reported to have left their homes to seek safety elsewhere. Retaliatory mortar fire from Pakistan Rangers is said to have claimed five villagers' lives and injured another 30 on the other side. There have been close to a dozen incidents of exchange of fire during this year with both sides blaming one another for provoking trouble.
The cease-fire agreement Pakistan and India signed in 2003 has become virtually ineffective. A major factor contributing to the worsening of the situation is the Narendra Modi government's attitude. True to his reputation of being a hard-liner on relations with Pakistan, Modi cancelled a foreign secretaries meeting, scheduled for August 25 that was to discuss resumption of the peace dialogue. The excuse used was Pakistan High Commissioner's meetings with Kashmiri leaders from the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, even though such interaction in the past formed part of the Composite Dialogue peace process. He has also been actively pursuing his declared objective of getting rid of Indian constitution's article 370, which gives special status to Jammu and Kashmir. For the attainment of that objective Modi needs to win the votes of the state's non-Muslim population in the upcoming state assembly elections. In his calculus, the escalation in violence across the LoC could help.
Whatever the cause, the intensifying hostilities can be reduced only through dialogue and discussion. New Delhi continues to reject Pakistan's proposal to have an impartial inquiry conducted by the UN Military Observer Group insisting it is a bilateral issue. There is the mechanism of flag meetings between the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs). Following two incidents of LoC violations last year that claimed as many lives, it took a while for the DGMOs to meet and sort out things. Later in December, both Pakistan and India expressed the resolve to uphold the 2003 cease-fire agreement and take necessary steps in that direction. Yet the resolve did not last long despite several friendly overtures Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has been making towards New Delhi for normalisation of relations. Belligerent rhetoric that has been emanating from New Delhi during the recent days will not help matters, only resumption of a meaningful dialogue will.