A strange paradox indeed - the very triumph over the Tamil Tigers that helped Mahenda Rajapaksa win the last presidential election has handed him an electoral defeat now. It is mainly the Tamil vote which tilted the electoral balance in favour of his rival Maithripala Sirisena, a fellow Sinhalese and member of the Rajapaksa cabinet till quite recently. Between now and the last election the graph of his popularity he had won by defeating Tamil separatists among the majority community Sinhalese, had precipitously dipped. Unlike the last time when turnout in Tamil areas was not more than 25 percent now the vote cast in there has been quite heavy, between 70 and 75 percent. It's not that Sri Lankan Tamils haven't come out of separatist syndrome yet; Rajapaksa was not voted upon because he had failed to undertake the much-needed rehabilitation in the war-torn region in any serious manner. And, when he did pay a visit there during his election campaign he portrayed himself as the 'devil you know' - and no wonder the Tamils knew the devil well and did not vote for him. If his failure to improve national reconciliation was the Tamil voters' main grudge, the second largest minority in Sri Lanka, Muslims, who are about 10 percent of island's population, were even more outraged. Last year when island country's Buddhist group Bodu Bala Sena carried out extensive carnage against Muslims' places of worship as a gesture of solidarity with Buddhist extremists in Myanmar, the Rajapaksa government had failed to control the situation. Resultantly, under pressure of their community both Muslim members of Rajapaksa cabinet, commerce minister Rishad Bathiudeen and justice minister Rauf Hakeem, parted ways with Rajapaksa.
Perhaps, Mahinda Rajapaksa could still win third term for him had his ethnic group, Sinhalese, stood with him. They did not vote for him en-bloc accusing him of nepotism - about 40 top positions in government are held by Rajapaksa's relatives. Sirisena - his full name being Pallewatle Gameralalage Maithripala Yapa Sirisena - was said to have become a symbol of simmering discontent over corruption. Even though the Sri Lankan economy has grown by an average of over seven percent since the civil war ended, in 2009, the fruits of economic prosperity hadn't percolated to the man in the street. In that there is a message for quite a few other governments who may succeed in raising GDP but such governments often fail to address popular disaffection and discontent. However, the question whether Rajapaksa could win against Tamil Tigers without the use of excessive force and thus secure territorial integrity of his country remains unanswered. He earned the United Nations charge of committing war crimes but denied investigation. Given that Sri Lankan military still basks in the sunshine of a decisive victory against separatists and that it has been Rajapaksa's real power-base is a fact that constitutes a high challenge for President-elect to oblige the UN investigators. And no less daunting for him will be to secure Sri Lanka from Tamil-pedalled influence of the regional hegemon. The two-decade-long insurgency in Sri Lanka had the undeniable support of fellow Tamils in neighbouring Indian states. Former president Mahinda Rajapaksa had greatly insulated the island against neighbour's compulsive interference. But him gone from the scene the possibility of India returning to its tested trickery cannot be ruled out. Consider, the first greeting card for president-elect Sirisena on his electoral victory came from Tamil Nadu.
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