US wheat futures fell on Monday after the US Agriculture Department raised its forecasts of US and world wheat ending stocks above trade expectations, traders said. Chicago Board of Trade March wheat touched a six-week low at $5.54, matching its 100-day moving average, before settling at $5.55-1/2. K.C. hard red winter (HRW) and MGEX spring wheat futures also fell.
USDA raised 2014/15 world wheat ending stocks at 196 million tonnes, up from 194.9 million last month and above an average of analyst estimates. USDA raised its forecast of 2014/15 US wheat ending stocks at 687 million bushels, from 654 million in December. Most of the increase was in hard red winter (HRW) wheat, a factor that pressured K.C. wheat. Yet losses in deferred K.C. contracts, which represent the new crop of HRW wheat, were limited by USDA estimating US HRW new-crop plantings at 29.5 million acres, below a range of trade estimates. Ukraine's agriculture minister said the country has no plans to restrict grain exports after Russia introduced curbs to stabilise prices, and will instead meet with traders to plan the year ahead in "normal operating mode." Monday was the third day of the annual five-session rebalancing period for commodity index funds. Traders expect index funds to sell 20,000 to 25,000 contracts of corn and 10,000 to 12,000 contracts of CBOT wheat during the period.
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