India's annual exports of coffee are set to drop by more than a tenth in the marketing year ending September 30, hit by lower output of the arabica variety as farmers' demand for higher prices erodes overseas competitiveness. Lower shipments by India, the world's sixth-biggest coffee producer, could further stiffen global prices of arabica, which jumped 50 percent in 2014. Italy, Germany and Belgium are India's main coffee buyers.
"Exports will drop by at least 10 percent," Ramesh Rajah, president of the Coffee Exporters' Association of India, told Reuters. "Indian coffee is too expensive compared to other destinations." Attacks by the stem borer pest and dry weather have hit arabica output, prompting Indian planters to demand a hefty premium for both arabica and robusta grades over New York and London futures.
India, which exports three-quarters of coffee production, shipped 303,290 tonnes in the 2013/14 marketing year. But since the start of the latest season on October 1, exports have fallen 13 percent to 75,179 tonnes. Production of arabica, which makes up a third of India's total coffee output, could fall 12 percent to 90,000 tonnes this season, Rajah said by telephone from the southern Indian city of Bengaluru.
Arabica harvesting has nearly been completed but farmers are not willing to sell, holding out for prices to rise. Adverse weather in top producer Brazil could widen a global coffee supply deficit in 2014/15 and prop up prices, a Reuters poll of 13 traders and analysts showed. Arabica coffee is typically roasted and ground for brewing and can vary widely in quality, with some reaching top levels.
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