The Ministry of Finance (MoF) has issued rejoinder on February 13 to my article titled "Manipulating statistics" carried by Business Recorder on February 4. I would like to point out that I have been an active user of statistics for over 35 years and as such has the credential to write on this topic. I am fully aware of the challenges that Pakistan's statistics are currently facing.
Few professionals within and outside the country trust these numbers. Newspapers have been writing editorials and highlighting the weaknesses of our statistics. This is exactly what I have also been pointing out for quite some time and asking the finance minister to form a high level committee consisting of users and collectors of statistics to examine the whole issues pertaining to statistics.
Reference to the ministry's rejoinder, it may be pointed out that we do not generate statistics, we analyse data as published by the government sources. On large-scale manufacturing (LSM), the PBS data itself shows that 30 items accounting for 30 percent weight have registered negative growth in the range of 10 to 81 percent during July-November 2014-15. Furthermore, there may be hundreds of units in Census of Manufacturing Industries (CMI) frame, the question is, how many of them are reporting their production to PBS or to the Ministry of Industries and Production (MOIP). The capacity of MOIP which collects LSM data of over 70 percent weight is well-known to me. The less we talk on this the better it is.
As regards data pertaining to POL product import, these are taken from the published sources released by the PBS. In quantity terms, import of petroleum products and petroleum crude are down by 2.1 percent and 3.3 percent during July-December 2014-15 as compared with the corresponding period of last year. This is an indication of a slowing economy.
As regards the import price data is concerned, interestingly the MoF has reported data from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources (MoPNR). In my article, I have quoted data from the PBS source. Why there is so much difference between the data provided by the PBS and MoPNR? The fault lies with PBS and not with me. Manipulation of budgetary statistics are well-known. Overstating revenue and understating expenditures have become a norm, resulting in grossly understating fiscal deficit number. All these manipulation are in the knowledge of the IMF but they have decided to become partner to the crime for political reasons.
I would sincerely suggest that the finance minister, without wasting any time, should form a high-level committee of practicing statisticians and economists to analyse the whole issue pertaining to statistics.
(THE WRITER IS PRINCIPAL & DEAN, NUST SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES & HUMANITIES ISLAMABAD0
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