US natural gas futures fell more than 5 percent on Thursday on a much weaker-than-expected storage draw and forecasts for less cold over the next two weeks.
The US Energy Information Administration said utilities pulled 219 billion cubic feet of gas from storage last week, well below the 241-bcf draw estimated by analysts in a Reuters poll.
Despite the forecast miss, the draw was still the biggest since January and far surpassed the 111-bcf draw the previous week. It was also much bigger than the 117-bcf draw in the same week a year earlier and the 131-bcf five-year average draw. On its first day as the front-month, April futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 14.6 cents at $2.716 per million British thermal units at 1:44 pm EST (1844 GMT).
So far this month, prices at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana are on track to average the lowest for February since 2012, due primarily to near record production. Calendar year 2016 and 2017 on the NYMEX, meanwhile, fell to their lowest since 2011 and 2006, respectively.
The cold weather so far this month has kept heating demand high, boosting gas prices in New York and New England for most of February. That has made it cheaper for power generators to burn residual fuel and heating oil rather than gas. Thomson Reuters Analytics said the latest Global Forecast System weather model for the lower 48 US states, however, showed a little more cold weather over the next two weeks with an expected 433 heating degree days (HDD). That compared with the 422-HDD forecast earlier Thursday, the 450-HDD forecast on Wednesday and the 340-HDD norm for this time of year.
Consumption was expected to rise to 111.2 billion cubic feet per day on Friday from 104.1 bcfd on Thursday. That compares with a norm of 79.9 bcfd for this time of year. Production in the lower 48 states was expected to fall to 72.2 bcfd from 72.6 bcfd on Wednesday as water freezing in some pipes, or freeze-offs, cut output in some areas. That compares with 68.0 bcfd a year ago and a record high of 74.5 bcfd in December.
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