Ukraine's 2015 grain harvest is likely to fall by up to 14 percent to 55-57 million tonnes due to poor autumn weather and a lower yield, a government source said on Friday, further weakening the war-battered economy. "We had forecast the harvest at 60 million tonnes, but this volume is not realistic. And now we see the harvest at 55 to 57 million tonnes," the source told Reuters. Ukraine harvested 63.8 million tonnes of grain in 2014.
The source said most Ukrainian crops would be smaller, including wheat, whose production could fall to around 20 million tonnes from 24.1 million tonnes last year.
"Farms have less money to buy fertilisers (and) high quality seeds, the sowing area might be smaller," the source said.
Traders have said Ukraine's wheat output could total 19 to 24 million tonnes.
A lower harvest will worsen the outlook for Ukraine's economy - banks have forecast a good crop in 2015 would stop the economy shrinking more than 7 percent this year.
Farms have sown 1.7 million hectares of early spring grains - barley, peas and oats - as of April 9, or 75 percent of the planned sowing area.
The source said that up to 90 percent of this area could be sown this year and the rest may be sown with late grains or oilseeds.
"We know that many farms plan to sow as much sunseed as possible. They think that sunseed is more profitable than barley," said Tetyana Adamenko, head of the agriculture department at Ukraine's state-run weather centre.
Ukraine is a traditional grower of sunflowers and the world's leading exporter of sunflower oil.
The Ukrainian economy contracted 6.8 percent last year as rebels fought government forces in the east. As the conflict drags on, the economy could shrink by 5.5 percent this year, the government estimates.
Ukrainian analyst UkrAgroConsult has said that Ukraine could lose about 1.0 million tonnes of grain and 200,000 tonnes of sunseed, planted on territory controlled by pro-Russian rebels.
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