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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a decline in the net debt for Pakistan from 61.2 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2014 to 60.8 percent in 2015. According to the IMF Fiscal Monitor 2015 "Now is the time, fiscal policy for sustainable growth" the net debt of Pakistan is projected to go down to 60.8 percent in 2015 and 55.6 percent by 2020.
The gross debt is projected to decline from 64.2 percent of GDP in 2014 to 64.1 percent in 2015 and go down further to 58.8 percent by 2020.
According to the IMF report the government revenue is projected at 14.8 percent of GDP for 2015 against 15.1 percent during the same period of 2014. It is projected to touch 15.4 percent in 2016 and 15.6 percent by 2017.
The government expenditure is projected to come down to 19.5 percent of the GDP in 2015 against 19.8 percent during the same period of last year while projecting a further decline to 19.3 percent by 2016.
According to the report, the country's maturing debt in 2015 is projected at 25.2 percent of GDP and by 2016 maturing debt is estimated at 24.3 percent. There would be financing needs of about 29.9 percent of GDP in 2015 and total financing needs would narrow down, albeit slightly, to 28.1 percent of GDP by 2016.
The Fund further projected Pakistan budget deficit at 4.7 percent for 2015 and 3.8 percent for 2016.
Pakistan's economy has stabilised with a 4.3 percent growth forecast for 2015 and is gradually improving fiscal and external positions, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF report "World Economic Outlook (WEO): uneven growth, short and long term factor" has stated that bold reforms are critical to solidify this progress and counter adverse effects on economic activity. Adverse effects have been identified as falling cotton prices and security and political tensions.
The signs of a nascent improvement in confidence have emerged; these have reflected, among other things, in a rating upgrade for Pakistan's first international bond issue in seven years, maintained the report.
WEO projected a slight decline in unemployment ratio from 6.7 percent in 2014 to 6.5 percent in 2015 and 6.1 in 2016. It further projected a decline in current account balance from negative 1.2 in 2014 to negative 1.3 percent in 2015.
The IMF report further projected a decline in inflation rate. The consumer price is expected to be 4.7 per cent during the current year 2015, down from 8.6 per cent last year 2014, and the rate may further decrease to 4.5 per cent in 2016. The real GDP growth rate which was 4.1 percent in the years 2014 is projected at 4.3 percent and 4.7 per cent for the year 2015 and 2016, respectively.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2015

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