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Farmers of KP have strongly resented the announcement of Ministry of Health to increase the size of health warning (GHW) on cigarette packs to 85 percent, as tobacco purchasing season is starting from June. Experts have calculated the economic cost of implementing the decision to increase size of health warnings. According to these estimates, even if there is only a 20 percent decline in tobacco crop purchases in Pakistan, tobacco crop requirement is likely to reduce by around 20 million kilograms.
This will reduce farmers' income by Rs 3 billion and is likely to put more than 15,000 farmers out of business. That in turn will put economic survival of more than 50,000 people at stake. According to Pakistan Agricultural Forum tobacco crop has a very special status in Pakistan. It is the only crop in the country which has yield that is 13 percent higher than the global average yield. As per these economic experts, forcing the farmers to switch from tobacco cultivation, where yield is higher than global average, is itself not a sound economic policy. According to these experts the reason for this high yield is the strong symbiotic linkage between farmers and industry. This formula of synergetic relationship is actually a model for other crops to follow. This could help increase the yield of other major crops like rice, wheat, and sugarcane, to global standards.
Government of Pakistan has now set up an Inter-Ministerial Committee to review all matters related to 85% health warning on cigarettes. The Committee must critically review the impact of this decision on local farmers. They must ask the question: is there an alternative crop in place of tobacco that can meet the economic needs of farmers? Is it correct that the new law is actually providing a subsidy for farmers abroad rather than supporting Pakistani farmers? The Committee will have to visit tobacco fields in KPK Province and meet the farmers on ground to understand their concerns, said Ghulam Ahmed, a representative of KP farmers.
As per sources in the Ministry of Health, the new regulation requiring printing 85% health warning on cigarette packs is intended to reduce youth smoking initiation and reduce smoking rates in Pakistan. On the other hand, tobacco farmers have raised three serious concerns against that regulation.
First concern of these farmers is that if the intended objective of reduced smoking is indeed met, it will mean lesser tobacco crop requirement in Pakistan. There are more than 75,000 tobacco farmers in Pakistan, who produce nearly 100 million kilograms of tobacco every year. These farmers earn more than Rs 15 billion rupees annually. It is a source of livelihood for more than 240,000 people. Implementation of this law will mean ruining livelihood of thousands of farmers who are already living in economically depressed regions of KP Province.
According to experts in the Agriculture Department in Peshawar because of special circumstances this threat of economic loss is serious in KPK Province. Tobacco crop is mostly grown in those regions and areas of KPK Province which are economically dependent on its cultivation. These farmers have few alternative sources of economic well-being.
Secondly, prices of major crops like rice, cotton, sugarcane, and even potato, have either not increased or declined recently. This means farmers in these regions are now more dependent on tobacco as a cash crop for their livelihoods.
Thirdly, farmers are even more concerned about increased inflow of smuggled and noncompliant packs from Afghanistan and Iran will anyway defeat the intended objective of smoking reduction. Ghulam Ahmad, a farmer in Mansehra stated that "increasing the size of health warning would not benefit any one as people would start buying smuggled or imported packs without any health warnings and who will be able to stop that?" Consumers would not like to buy packs with grotesque health warnings of 85% and will instead demand packs without any health warning. The net result will be that smoking rates will not decline as consumers will switch to smuggled noncompliant packs.
As per law the price of tobacco crop cannot be reduced and must increase year on year. Hence, normal market pricing dynamics depending upon supply and demand are not allowed to operate in case of tobacco crop. This law was put in place to protect sustainability of tobacco farmers. Even in case of surplus crop, as per law the prices are not allowed to decrease. Hence, the farmers need not reduce their production as under the law price must again increase next year. The question that arises is 'once the crop requirement of cigarette companies decline, for how long will they keep purchasing surplus crop? And who will be paying for that surplus crop to the farmers? Will Government now start buying tobacco as a safety net?' said an official of Pakistan Tobacco Board.
Farmers in KP have already presented their note of protest and charter of demand to the Pakistan Tobacco Board and Ministry of Commerce have in turn taken up this matter with the Ministry of Health in Islamabad and conveyed the farmers concerns. The urgency in the matter also arises from the fact that tobacco purchase season is starting from June. All the negative consequences that are likely to follow are going to become live from June onwards.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2015

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