Ukraine's grain exports seen at 30-32 million tones

Ukraine is likely to export no more than 32 million tonnes of grain in the 2014/15 season, Agriculture Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko said on Thursday, lowering an earlier forecast that put exports at up to 37 million tonnes. In the (July-June) 2013/14 season, Ukraine exported 32.8 million tonnes. Ukraine, among the world's major grain growers and exporters, harvested a record grain crop of 63.8 million tonnes in 2014. It consumes 25 million tonnes of grain. "We see exports at between 30 and 32 million tonnes (this season) and see no reason to change the forecast," Pavlenko told reporters. "But I do not think it will be exactly 32, more likely 30 to 32 million tonnes."
The ministry previously said the 2014/15 supply/demand balance showed that Ukrainian exportable surplus would reach a record 37 million tonnes for this season. Ukraine has exported 29.3 million tonnes of grain as of April 30, according to the ministry's data. The exports reached 2.6 million tonnes in April, analyst UkrAgroConsult said, adding that the volume included 1.95 million tonnes of maize.
Pavlenko said that high volumes of maize might be exported in the remaining one and a half months of the current season, but gave no figures. He said farmers needed more funds to complete this year's sowing and would sell significant volumes of maize in the coming weeks. Pavlenko said cold and rainy weather in early spring had forced farmers to reduce the area sown for barley by around 10 percent, acreage that could be sown for oilseeds, most likely sunflower.
A government source said last month that Ukraine's 2015 grain harvest was likely to fall by up to 14 percent to 55-57 million tonnes due to poor autumn weather and lower yields. The source said most Ukrainian crops would be lower, including wheat, whose production could fall to around 20 million tonnes from 24.1 million tonnes last year. "What we can say now is that all Ukrainian land will be seeded but we have to focus on the crop structure," Pavlenko said, promising to issue a final forecast late this month.
Commentators said a possible fall in the harvest could force the government to consider export controls for the 2015/16 season and Pavlenko said a system where traders agree to limit export volumes could be a good option. This season, the ministry and traders agreed a memorandum with maximum volumes of exports for selected commodities.