At last, a census has been scheduled

The population and housing census is scheduled for March next year, 17 years after the last one was held, it was announced last week by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). The news should be taken with a large pinch of salt. A census is supposed to take place every 10 years. The last one was in 1998, therefore this one ought to have taken place in 2008. Had that happened, the country would be preparing for a census in 2018. In short, we are actually two census behind. The big question is how can a country function without regularly updated census statistics of the population?
Census is essential for proper planning of everything, from health, housing, water, gas and electric supply, education, development projects and so forth. Without it there cannot be a realistic or fair distribution of wealth, from revenue and loans from the World Bank and donations from oil-rich countries. So in the last 17 years on what basis have the allocations in budget and the National Finance Commission (NFC) been made? Probably on statistics prepared by such agencies as the World Bank and the United Nations' various departments. On what their statistics are based is not known. It means the country's finance has been used on blind calculations of the populations. I hesitate to call these outright falsehoods, but there is a strong smell of corruption behind the delay in a census.
And this in a country whose sentiments are rooted in the Muslim Creed: the Quran and Sunna. Few people know that the first census recorded in history for the distribution of state revenue was in the reign of the second Rightly-guided Caliph Omar (RA) (634-44 CE). The reason is that nobody is interested in history. The Mullah preaches devotion, the rulers spend money where their vote banks exist. It is not just politicians, however, who have exploited national wealth (including loans and aid) to consolidate their power. Military rulers have been equally guilty.
There is, of course, a political reason why the Census has been scheduled. This is clearly indicated in the official statement of Chief Statistician Asif Bajwa that the census scheduled was decided on March 18 at a meeting of the Council of Common Interests (CCI) under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who also approved the census will be held with the assistance of the armed forces. The census exercise will last three months, preliminary results will be completed by June 2016, while other activities, including district-wise data reports will be completed by December 2017. Hopefully, the next general elections should be scheduled for 2018. There is also a reduction in fear of annoying our usual godfathers the USA and Saudi Arabia every since the Chinese have promised a huge loan. The Chinese must have insisted on realistic population and other statistics, undoubtedly.
Every effort is to be made to produce a realistic Census. Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has approved a budget of Rs 14.5 billion for the census exercise to be shared by the provinces. He also said technical committees on various subjects will be formed by including technical experts along with the members of the PBS. But before the exercise begins, an important point that is to be settled is the change in benchmarks for different economic indicators, such as inflation and GDP.
But will the government be able to ensure a successful census? The timing of the Census clearly indicated political interest of the ruling PML(N). It therefore, also raises the fear of political sabotage of the Census, with other parties crying foul over this and that indicator, particularly the district-wise data reports. In Sindh it is likely to cause friction between the PPP and the MQM.
Probably it is the reason why the PBS says the census 'may be' held with the full support of the armed forces, and why the prime minister has approved the suggestion. It is unclear what they really want. Do they want only support of the armed forces or do they want the army to conduct the entire census operation?
What about demography? This is particularly important to cosmopolitan Karachi which, according to the last census of 1998, has the largest population of the city comprising Pathans, next Punjabis, third Mohajirs, and fourth Sindhis and other ethnic groups such as Parsees. Will the Pathan and Punjabi population be recorded as the population of Sindh or will they be recorded as the population of their home provinces or will there be double entry of the same people in Sindh and in KP and Punjab? It is a vital issue and the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics should discuss it in their next meeting and let us know. Karachi is the financial hub of the country, which makes this a very important point to settle before the 2016 census preparations are complete.