US natural gas futures fell nearly 3 percent on Monday on expectations for weaker demand in the latest weather forecast, and projections for production to increase. Front-month gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down 8.3 cents at $2.733 per million British thermal units.
Some of the most active options were the $1.50 and $1.75 October 2015 puts. In technical news, the front-month slid below the 50- and 100-day moving averages for the first time since early June. The Global Forecast System weather model for the lower 48 US states called for cooler, but still above-normal temperatures over the next two weeks, with 194 population-weighted cooling degree days. That was down from a forecast 200 CDDs earlier Monday but was in line with the 195 CDDs forecast on Friday and compared with the 30-year norm of 176 CDDs.
With the slightly cooler weather, Thomson Reuters Analytics forecast consumption in the lower 48 would hit 58.9 billion cubic feet per day over the next two weeks. That was down from 59.4 bcfd forecast earlier Monday but was the same as Friday's forecast and compared with the 30-year norm of 54.8 bcfd. Despite the warm weather, residential, commercial and industrial customers were expected to continue using less gas than usual. Power generators, however, kept burning more of the fuel because of its relatively low cost compared with coal. In an effort to keep coal competitive with gas, traders sold coal futures down to a fresh 2007 low. That kept the premium of gas futures over coal above $1 per mmBtu for 10 consecutive days for the first time since December.
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