Battle for Punjab

Ruling the Punjab is the real deal. But Punjab has delivered a split mandate. Much in demand, the so-called ‘independents’ are busy extracting their pound of flesh, for neither the PML-N, nor the PTI, could achieve simple majority in the key province. So the number game is on, to stitch up a coalition and rule the country’s heartland.

It increasingly looks like Khadim-e-Aala – whose political fate is hanging by a thread after the PML-N’s electoral loss – won’t be returning as Chief Minister this time. It isn’t clear how the provincial and national politics will unfold with the PML-N having zero stakes in the system.

Will the PTI really be able to complete its trifecta by forming a government in Punjab as well? The situation will become clear in a few days. Until then, the current dead-heat can be put into perspective through the prism of continuity, competition, and competence.

“Continuity” is never a bad idea in governance. The PML-N’s pace and scale of infrastructure development in Punjab was way beyond what Sindh or Khyber Pakhtunkhwa could deliver. During the election campaign, the party promised to focus next time on human development. As for the PTI, it also promised Punjab a whole lot of human development, which is its rallying cry. So, at least on paper, it looks like Punjab will be getting human development no matter which party pitches its tent in Lahore.

As for “competition”, a PML-N government in Punjab – with the PTI at the center – may give more incentive to both parties to deliver. The sense of rivalry may keep each governing party on their toes. But one downside of such competition is an ugly friction in federal-Punjab relations, the likes of which people witnessed between PML-N and PPP in 2008-13.

Besides, both parties will conveniently push political blame each other’s way when things don’t go as per plan.

In the absence of comparable data, evaluating “competence” would be a subjective exercise. But there is no denying that the Shahbaz government was able to carefully build an aura of competence around it. Among those who have acknowledged “Punjab speed”, there are some who dread the thought of Punjabi cities resembling the infrastructure mess that Peshawar has become under the PTI’s provincial government.

Just as the PPP, the PTI is yet to find its Shahbaz who could deliver on infrastructure development. PTI must know that brick-and-mortar development is apparently favoured more by Punjab voters. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was different; despite not having an administrator-type CM there, the PTI has returned to power in KP in an unprecedented fashion.

Now, the PTI may soon get a chance to demonstrate whether it has chops to govern a province that is bigger than Germany/Vietnam in terms of population and rivals Great Britain in terms of area. Meanwhile, Khadim-e-Aala perhaps needs a long vacation after a decade of running Punjab. For next time, Punjab voters will be in a better position to judge what kind of development really works for them.