Almost a breakthrough

After a spell of searing heat come cool showers of monsoon - that is typical of South Asia weather, both climatic and political. What looked almost impossible - with Indian government leaders making grave threats and their Pakistani counterparts issuing matching ripostes - now looks so much possible in the wake of an hour-long meeting between the prime ministers of the two countries on the sidelines of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) summit in a Russian city, Ufa. Is it the positive atmospherics created by the back-to-back SCO and BRICS summits that triggered change in the tension-ridden bilateral relationship of the two countries, or is it the usual between the two? Perhaps, it is both. The Ufa summits are proof evidence of emerging ground realties of the world order that states inherently possess capability to move away from their bitter past to a tension-free present for a peaceful and prosperous future of their people and they are doing so. But the question is: Is that the case of Pakistan-India equation also? As of now, it may be hazardous to be affirmative on it, though the joint statement issued after the Nawaz-Modi meeting does copiously indicate a turn in that direction. The statement was read out by the foreign secretaries of the two countries at a joint press conference, which is not always the case. And it says the meeting was held in "cordial atmosphere", as also suggested by the relaxed faces of the two foreign secretaries as they shared its reading. Of course, the core issue that overrides all other between Pakistan and India, Kashmir, is not mentioned by name. But it is not being left out - according to the statement the two sides are "prepared to discuss all outstanding issues", and Kashmir is one such issue as it sits on top of the agenda to obtain normalised bilateral relationship. And that is a clear change in the Modi government's standard position on Kashmir dispute, which it was not prepared to discuss at any forum - bilateral or international.
India also agreed that it is the "collective responsibility" of both sides to ensure and promote peace and development, as against its hobby horse of blaming Pakistan for any and everything that would wrong between the two countries. In this context, the two sides have decided that calm on the common borders must be restored, for which DGs of Rangers and Border Security Force (BSF) would meet, followed by a meeting of the DGMOs of the two countries. Restoring tension-free borders is critical to normalisation. It was the rising violence on the Line of Control and parts of international border that derailed the talks last time, as New Delhi prematurely declined to join the DGMO-level meeting. Though it was not the first time that situation on the Line of Control became tense - such skirmishes had also happened in the past as that is in the nature of the situation which obtains in the absence of peaceful resolution of Kashmir dispute. But the Modi government took it wrongly; it accused Pakistan of encouraging such attacks. Somehow India finds a connection between the Kashmiris struggle for freedom and terrorism, and thereby tends to hold the normalisation process hostage to incidents of terrorism. It heaps blame on Pakistan, overlooking the fact that Pakistan is a much more serious victim of terrorism a great part of which comes from India and admitted so, albeit indirectly, by none else but by a cabinet colleagues of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. No wonder then Pakistan has agreed to hold discussions on Indian reservations at a meeting to be held in New Delhi of their national security advisors. In that respect the two sides are expected to discuss ways and means "to expedite the Mumbai case trail, including additional information like providing voice samples". As it happens, the Pakistanis would expect the meeting to also look into how Indian defence minister Parrikar is 'removing thorn with thorn' in Balochistan. Additionally, the fishermen in each other's custody would be released within 15 days along with their boats and a mechanism would be put in place to facilitate religious tourism. To top it all, Prime Minister Modi has accepted invitation to visit Pakistan next year to attend the SAARC summit, departing from the decades-old no-reciprocal visit of Pakistan by top Indian leadership.