Dollar rebounds on US data, drop in 'currency war' anxiety

The US dollar recovered on Thursday after China's central bank said there was no basis for further yuan depreciation and on data showing US retail sales rebounded in July, refocusing attention on the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in September. After hitting a roughly one-month low Wednesday, the US dollar rose against a basket of major currencies as the yuan's decline slowed, easing worries that China's decision to devalue its currency was a deliberate attempt to gain a competitive advantage.
US retail sales increased 0.6 percent last month, broadly in line with economists' expectations, while June retail sales were revised higher. The data boosted expectations that the Fed would raise rates in September for the first time in nearly a decade. "The retail sales data very much keeps September in play," said Ian Gordon, FX strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. Gordon said the data fits the Fed's narrative that US employment gains over the past year will spur consumption.
The dollar had earlier gained on the statements from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the slowing of the yuan's decline. China's central bank also said it would step in to stabilise prices. The spot yuan only weakened by around 0.2 percent on the day to 6.3990 per dollar. It hit 6.4510 per dollar on Wednesday, its lowest in roughly four years. The yuan was also down about 0.2 percent in international trade at 6.4616 per dollar.
"China's statements maybe took some of the market's focus off of China and moved it back to the September rate meeting," said Chris Gaffney, president of EverBank World Markets in St. Louis. He said the statements alleviated concerns of a currency war.
The PBOC said it would now calculate the daily yuan fix by taking more notice of market forces, including the closing price in the previous day's trading session. Coming after a run of weak data, many had believed the yuan move was motivated by desire to boost exporters. The euro was last down 0.37 percent against the dollar at $1.11175. The dollar was last up 0.13 percent against the yen at 124.370 yen. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last up 0.34 percent at 96.595. The dollar was last up 0.05 percent against the Swiss franc at 0.97580 franc.