SovEcon, a leading Russian agriculture consultancy, has upgraded its forecast for the 2015 grain crop and the agriculture ministry said it could raise its estimate due to favourable crop weather. Russia, a large wheat exporter to North Africa and the Middle East, had the second largest grain crop in its post-Soviet history of 105 million tonnes last year.
SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia's grain crop in 2015 by 2 million tonnes to 99 million tonnes thanks to more favourable weather conditions for wheat, Andrey Sizov, the head of SovEcon, said. The agriculture ministry is keeping its baseline estimate of this year's grain crop unchanged at 100 million tonnes, but may upgrade it to 102-103 million if the weather becomes more favourable, minister Alexander Tkachev was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency.
Last week the ministry said it was expecting a 2015 grain crop at 101.5 million tonnes. Tkachev also estimated Russia's grain exports at almost 30 million tonnes in the current 2015/16 marketing year, which started on July 1. SovEcon raised its outlook for Russia's wheat crop by 2 million tonnes to 59.5 million tonnes as weather conditions in Siberia and Urals improved, Sizov told Reuters. The consultancy kept its 2015 maize (corn) crop forecast unchanged at 12 million tonnes, but added that dry weather in Russia's southern regions could prompt a downward revision. Farmers have already harvested 53 million tonnes of grains by bunker weight - before drying and cleaning - from 37 percent of the total area, according to agriculture ministry data. A wheat crop of 40 million tonnes has been harvested from 45 percent of the area.
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