Desirable goals

An independent think tank, Institute of Policy Research, has expressed fears that a series of mini-budgets would be needed in the current financial year as corrective policy actions since the outcome in the first month (July) are not very promising. Thus, these early warning signs need to be considered. And, the PML (N) government in its third year in power needs to demonstrate that there has been sustainable economic stabilisation due to increased support from multilateral agencies and international media. This, in essence, means that we should not rest on improvement in our ratings by Moody's and S&P, due to rise in forex reserves that is on the strength of borrowed funds. And also, we should not be carried away by praise from western media and instead let the people observe and experience an improvement in their lives and take steps to brighten the future prospects of economy.
We understand that in a globalised world, Pakistan needs to have sustainable goals. Countries which were at a similar stage of development managed a breakthrough because of high literacy rate and good skill sets. Unfortunately, however, this is not the case in Pakistan as a country. Only Punjab province appears to be laying focus not only on improving its education standard but also imparting skill improvement through establishment of more technical schools and have a structure in place for micro-programmes for entrepreneurships. The KPK government has also earmarked higher funds for education. However, Sindh and Balochistan are still woefully behind and future prospects in these two provinces for various reasons appear to be dismal.
Depending solely on the services sector for growth would be wrong. What is missing is focus on industry, specially LSM, and agriculture that can provide the much-needed growth. This is where the policymakers need to focus. The largest manufacturing sector is cotton-based textiles - which is in trouble and falling exports are a direct result of this failed approach. The federal government is concentrating on improving the security environment and lowering the supply-demand gap in energy. However, raising tariff instead of improving efficiency is negating this effort. Imposing surcharges and other taxes on inputs needed to boost exports are making us uncompetitive - both in manufacturing and agriculture. We know there are no easy solutions. But getting the right sequencing and undertaking structural reforms are essential for sustainable development.
The security problem is directly tied to investment and so is the energy supply deficiency linked to manufacturing. Creating an artificial construct or mere blowing of trumpet of success will not work. People need to see an improvement in their lives; and having a good paying job is the first essential step. Everyone wants security of life and limb and better education for their children and a home with civic amenities readily available but at an affordable cost.
Pakistan's development is getting slower compared to the countries in its region. And, there is a growing concern that this South Asian country that was once regarded as a middle income country appears on path that leads to the club of least developed countries. Inability to create enough jobs for a million plus youth entering the job market every year spells more trouble in future.
Similarly, letting Rawalpindi dictate our foreign policy with our neighbours needs a rethink. We are glad that the civil-military relations at the moment appear to be stable. And, upsetting the applecart by dwelling on history is not the right approach. Nor is any kind of upheaval in the major cities desirable. Continuation of policies is essential, especially in the field of economy, to obtain better results.